The involvement of Belarus in the Russian war in Ukraine in the foreseeable future is unlikely, as it could significantly threaten the country’s internal political stability and the position of Aleksandr Lukashenko, according to Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB).
SAB concluded in it’s activity report for 2024 that Lukashenko’s regime remains stable.
This is mainly achieved through repression and restriction of freedom of expression, according to the Latvian bureau.
At the same time, Belarus’ dependence on Russia and, consequently, Russia’s influence on Belarus continues increasing.
Russia’s interests continue to dominate the country’s foreign policy. Minsk continues to look for new cooperation partners and outlets for Belarusian goods. It is very likely that many means of Russian influence in Belarus will remain even if Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin leave office.
The 2024 parliamentary and 2025 presidential elections in Belarus demonstrated that the regime still controls the situation in the country.
In 2024, the repression of the representatives of the opposition and their relatives by the security authorities continued to increase in Belarus. At the same time, the opposition continued to be active last year. However, the low interest in the activities of the opposition can be explained by several reasons. For example, any involvement in such activities is considered to be personally dangerous and may result in several years’ imprisonment, according to the report from SAB.
Last year, Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus more intensively into the framework of allied state were also observed. It is possible that the new integration plan for 2024 – 2026 will further increase Russia’s control over Belarus’ foreign and domestic policy.
However, Russia can already achieve favourable decisions in Belarus through bilateral agreements and does not need the integrated state framework, SAB concluded.
According to SAB, Belarus is unlikely to be directly involved in the Russian war against Ukraine in the foreseeable future, as this could significantly threaten the domestic political stability of the country and Lukashenko’s positions, especially in view of the firm position of the society against direct military involvement of Belarus in the war.
Lukashenko’s cooperation with Russia serves as a guarantor of presidential authority, which has allowed him to retain power and ensure the stability of the regime, says SAB. However, the Belarusian leader is aware that such support is associated with a risk to his ability to continue to govern the country, so Lukashenko’s concern about the need to reduce Belarus’ isolation from the West in order to counterbalance Russia’s influence is growing, the report concluded.
The SAB is one of the three Latvian state security institutions that carries out intelligence and counter-intelligence, protection of classified information in accordance with the procedure established by law, as well as carries out and controls the exchange of classified information with international organisations.