Russia’s military spending is growing so fast that, despite efforts by European countries to increase their budgets and rearm, Russia’s military spending exceeds that of all European countries combined, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) latest Military Balance report, published on Wednesday, the 12th of February, reports Politico.
The report shows that Russia spent around 13.1 trillion roubles (145.9 billion US dollars) on the military last year, which represents 6.7% of the country’s GDP – up more than 40% from the year before.
Meanwhile, European countries together spent 457 billion US dollars on defence in 2024.
Adjusted in line with inflation, this is more than 50% higher than in 2014 and 11.7% more than last year.
IISS pointed out that if Russia’s military spending is adjusted for domestic prices – because everything costs less in Russia than on the world market – it would be 461.6 billion US dollars.
The fact that Russia is outpacing all of Europe in military spending is something new, the result of Russia’s “remarkable” defence growth and industrial reform, said Fenella McGerty, senior defence economist at the IISS.
This reinforces concerns that Russia will be able to attack the continent once the war against Ukraine is over.
“We are not prepared for what lies ahead in four to five years’ time,” warned NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte last year. These warnings have been echoed by defence officials from across Europe.
The latest information came from Danish intelligence services, which said this week that Russia could be ready to launch a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago, its defence spending has soared and is set to increase by another 14% this year to 15.6 trillion roubles, estimates IISS.
The war has forced Russia to make huge changes, and its defence sector has increased the production of ammunition and artillery to support the so-called “meat grinder” tactics on the front lines.
The country’s industrial base has now been expanded on a larger scale and the private sector is becoming increasingly important. “It’s a real adjustment that we’re seeing, not just in terms of spending,” said McGarty.
Europe fears that Russia’s increased defence industry could be targeted against the EU and NATO. However, Putin’s war in Ukraine has seriously weakened Russia’s pre-war army, raising doubts about its ability to sustain current spending.
The IISS estimates that 14 000 main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured vehicles have been lost since the start of the war. While some of these have been replaced by domestically produced vehicles, Russia has also been forced to use “vintage” models such as the BTR-50 APC and T-62 tanks produced in the 1950s.
Despite the heavy losses, IISS analysts believe that Russia can maintain its high casualty tactics throughout the year. Russia still has “ambitious plans” to build up a large post-war armed force, said Henry Boyd, Senior Specialist in Military Capabilities and Data Assessment.
Europe is still trying to increase defence spending after the low levels of the Cold War years. In 2024, 24 of the 32 NATO members met the 2% of GDP target for defence, although President Donald Trump now wants 5%.
Countries close to Russia are rapidly expanding their militaries, even buying weapons outside Europe. Poland, for example, signed a 16.9 billion US dollar arms deal with South Korea.
Some countries, with France at the forefront, insist on the need for more EU-made weapons and for EU spending programmes to support domestic industries. Germany, Poland and the Baltic States, on the other hand, prioritise security ties with the US and rapid procurement.
Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of EU defence orders went to US companies and 15% to other non-EU suppliers,
according to last year’s Draghi report, which aims to make Europe more competitive.
The EU is aware of the problem and wants Member States to increase defence spending, with Ursula von der Leyen proposing an extra 500 billion euros for defence over the next decade.
Brussels has also launched programmes to strengthen Europe’s arms industry, including the 1.5-billion-euro European Defence Industry Programme, although countries disagree on whether to fund non-EU arms manufacturers.
While European countries are doing more on defence, there are concerns that this is still too little as Russia builds up its forces and traditional defence ties with the US are strained under Trump, which could leave the continent alone for the first time since the Second World War.