In mid-March, a network of pro-Russian bots began spreading a false and inflammatory claim that the plot to assassinate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was planned, Politico reports.
A carefully crafted video, distributed on the X and falsely presented as being from a Moldovan media outlet, suggests that Hungarians are being urged to take up arms, resist the authorities, and kill Orbán. According to information provided to Politico by the Antibot4Navalny activist group, the video is part of a targeted and unusually inflammatory Kremlin-linked campaign launched ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections scheduled for the 12th of April.
The video surfaced days before the Washington Post reported that Russian intelligence had considered staging a mock attack on Orbán to boost the current prime minister’s chances in the election. Disinformation researchers have noted that the timing is interesting because the Russian botnet, Matryoshka, has typically reacted to news rather than trying to predict it.
Antibot4Navalny said one possible explanation is that the group is taking a proactive approach this time, creating a narrative rather than expanding on an existing one. However, it is also possible that the botnet is working more closely with Russian intelligence services. In a statement to Politico, Antibot4Navalny said that
under normal circumstances, the botnet simply reacts to what is already known to the public,
and usually takes about 24 hours to figure out how to use the news to its advantage.
The election is crucial for both the Kremlin and Brussels. At stake is Moscow’s political influence in Hungary, whose prime minister has warm relations with the Kremlin and has regularly blocked European Union plans to help Ukraine and isolate Russia.
The Kremlin called the Washington Post report another example of Western disinformation.
Botnets close to the Kremlin have been linked to election meddling in the United States, Germany, Poland, Moldova and Armenia. However, Antibot4Navalny noted that the Hungarian election is the first time that a Russian disinformation campaign has specifically invoked narratives of a deadly attack on a candidate or a military coup. The US spread the Matryoshka attack theories after, not before, the attack on current President Donald Trump, and treated them like any other news that could be used to its advantage. Moreover, the botnet’s messages this time are strongly focused on portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine in general as a threat to Orbán. Previously, the botnet used a wider range of narratives to highlight Moscow’s preferred candidate and smear opponents. Antibot4Navalny suggested that
the real goal this time is not the elections as such, but something else.
Moscow has denied any involvement in Hungarian politics. According to the Washington Post, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó used breaks in meetings to brief Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on what was being discussed, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused “Hungary’s enemies” of spreading feverish nightmares.
Meanwhile, Russian officials and pro-Kremlin observers have accused Ukraine and Europe of trying to change the Budapest regime. Vladimir Kornilov wrote on Telegram that Ukraine was preparing to hold a new Maidan in Budapest, referring to the 2014 events that overthrew pro-Kremlin Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
Since launching the disinformation campaign, Matryoshka has been publishing up to ten videos a day related to Hungary.
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