The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut indicates the Russian Ministry of Defence has largely dropped the goal to surround the considerable number of Ukrainian troops fighting there, as concluded by US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian Ministry of Defence, it would seem, started paying less attention towards Bakhmut in January 2023, when they prohibited Wagner mercenary group from hiring new fighters from Russian prisons.
This forced Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin to increase efforts to gain success in Soledar-Bakhmut direction.
But in February he started publicly complaining that the ministry no longer supports Wagner’s efforts.
In March and April Russian Ministry of Defence did, for a moment, provide more resources to the front in Bakhmut by sending T-90 tanks and its airborne troops there. The ministry also provided Wagner Group mobilised reservists. However, after the 24th of April Prigozhin announced that the Ministry of Defence deployed inexperienced units to hold the flanks around Bakhmut and other locations around the front, stressing that they will likely prove to weak to oppose Ukrainian counter-offensive.
ISW also notes that the distribution of forces of the Ministry of Defence together with the changes on the battlefield indicate that the threat of Russia encircling important Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is likely no longer a possibility.
Wagner will likely continue frontal assaults in Bakhmut, which could allow Ukrainian forces perform an organised withdrawal from threatened regions to avoid large-scale encirclement, ISW analysts say.
Also read: Turkish opposition leader accuses Russia of influencing the election