Russia and Belarus are starting military exercises called Zapad today, the 12th of September, and they are raising concerns in NATO about possible provocations along the alliance’s eastern flank.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said on the 11th of September that while the exercises do not suggest immediate aggression, there is a risk that airspace will be violated, and other provocations cannot be ruled out. The president said that Lithuania is taking appropriate measures, and there is no indication that the exercises could be used for aggression against Lithuania.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced in May that the exercises will be smaller in scale than before, and will be moved away from the western border and concentrated in the central part of the country. Minsk has said 13,000 troops will take part, although Lithuanian intelligence estimates the actual number could be as high as 30,000, including around 2,000 Russian troops.
Analysts have linked the reduced number of participants to the war in Ukraine, to which Russian forces have been diverted. Following the previous Zapad exercises, Russia also used Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine a few months later.
Belarus has invited NATO representatives to observe the exercises,
and Belarus’ self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko has recently spoken of a possible thaw in relations with the West.
Belarusian officials have said that planning for the use of nuclear weapons will be tested. The exercises also include air defense training, invasion prevention and tactical aviation support.
The main concern for Lithuania, Poland and other NATO countries is not a full-scale invasion but smaller-scale provocations. Analysts have warned that the exercises could be used to intensify attacks on Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced that Poland will close its border with Belarus during the exercises, and Warsaw has already sent 40,000 soldiers to the Belarusian and Russian borders. Lithuania does not plan to close its borders, but has created an approximately 8-kilometer-wide no-fly zone along the Belarusian border, increased patrols and tightened border controls. Latvia has also announced precautionary measures.
Warsaw has indicated that the Zapad maneuvers are partly designed to simulate an operation to take over the Suwalki Gap, which NATO considers one of the most important and vulnerable areas in the event of a Russian attack.
Read the whole article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2674838/russia-belarus-launch-zapad-2025-drills-lithuania-braces-for-provocations
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