By taking Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro captive, US President Donald Trump has shown more than ever his faith in the power of the US military, and BBC editor Jeremy Bowen assesses what this means for the rest of the world.
Trump held a spectacular press conference at his Florida residence, where he announced that until a safe, orderly and legal transfer of power can be achieved, the US will govern Venezuela. Trump also said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who had promised to do whatever was necessary. He stressed that Rodriguez had been quite accommodating, but “she really doesn’t have a choice.” However, the US president did not go into details during the press conference, only indicating that the American military would not be afraid to set foot in Venezuela if the need arose.
However, does Trump believe that he will be able to lead Venezuela remotely? And will his determination to add military action to his words (which both Rubio and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth generously praised at the press conference) be enough to change Venezuela and bring other Latin American leaders to their knees?
The US president himself made it sound plausible, but everything indicates that it will not be that simple. The International Crisis Group think tank warned in October that the fall of Maduro could lead Venezuela to outbreaks of violence and destabilization. The New York Times reported that during Trump’s first term in office, defence officials and diplomats in his administration analyzed what could happen if the Maduro regime fell. At the time,
the conclusions were not pleasant – violent chaos was predicted, caused by the struggle for power between military factions.
The capture and imprisonment of Maduro is a remarkable demonstration of US military power. The Americans created a solid armada and achieved their goal without losing a single life. Meanwhile, Maduro ignored the will of the Venezuelan people, pretending not to see his defeat in the elections, and it is clear that many citizens will be happy to see him go.
Meanwhile, the consequences of US actions will be felt far beyond Venezuela’s borders.
The mood at the Florida press conference was one of victory, as Americans celebrated a model operation carried out by highly professional military forces. However, a military operation is only the first step. In the past 30 years, US history has witnessed a series of dramatic cases of power being taken over by force, and it has been proven that the subsequent political process determines whether the outcome will be successful.
The US military’s entry into Iraq in 2003 led to a bloody disaster. In Afghanistan, a two-decade, billion-dollar attempt to build a new state collapsed within days of the Americans’ departure in 2021. And neither country was in the immediate vicinity of the US.
Attempts to regulate the situation in Latin America – both past and forthcoming – are also not promising.
When it comes to US spheres of influence, Trump has applied the historic Monroe Doctrine, calling it the “Donro Doctrine.” The Monroe Doctrine was adopted during the fifth President of the United States, James Monroe, in 1823. According to this document, the world was divided into European and American systems of government, which in turn provided for mutual non-interference in the internal politics of countries of different systems. At the beginning of the 20th century, the doctrine was strengthened by the then US President Theodore Roosevelt, and the goal was to make the US the dominant power in the region. Now Trump has announced that the achievements of his administration surpass the Monroe Doctrine, and American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere will never be challenged again. At the same time, the highest US official has made it clear that Colombia and Mexico also need to rethink their policies.
Undoubtedly, Cuba is also in the circle of US interests. Rubio, whose parents are of Cuban origin, is also pushing this.
US military action in Latin America is not the first time either. In 1994, Bill Clinton sent 25,000 troops and two military cargo planes to Haiti to bring about regime change. That regime collapsed before it could even be fired. However, hopes for a better future have not materialized, and Haiti is now ruled by armed gangs.
Trump spoke at a press conference about transforming Venezuela, but did not mention democracy. He rejected the idea that the country should be led by the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader María Corina Machado.
The US president stressed that he believes Machado does not have enough support.
He also did not mention Edmundo González, whom many Venezuelans consider the real winner of the 2024 presidential election. Instead, the US is, for now at least, backing Maduro’s vice president, Rodríguez.
While it was likely internal discord that allowed the US to gain the information it needed to carry out a swift operation, it seems that the regime created by Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, has not collapsed. It is unlikely that the Venezuelan military would support the American plans. The regime has armed guerrilla groups, and there are quite a few military groups in the country. These include criminal organizations and Colombian guerrillas.
The US action in Colombia again sheds light on Trump’s worldview. The US president has made no secret of his stance on the resources of other countries. Since taking office a year ago, he has sought to gain access to Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for military support. Trump has made it clear that he wants to control Venezuela’s vast mineral reserves, and believes that US oil companies were robbed when Venezuela nationalized its oil industry.
He stressed, however, that the benefits from natural resources will mostly remain in Venezuela.
However, the US president’s actions have raised concerns again that he might seek to annex Greenland to the US. The American government has not abandoned the idea of annexing the autonomous territory of Denmark. The reason for this is both the already mentioned natural resources, which are becoming easier to access due to climate change, and the strategic location of the Arctic island.
The operation to capture Maduro has dealt a strong blow to the idea that the best way to govern is to follow the rules, such as international law. Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly shown that he believes that he can ignore laws that he does not like.
The situation that has developed in the first days of the year has put US partners in Europe in a difficult position. Its leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are trying to avoid the issue and are looking for ways to signal their support for international law while ignoring the fact that Maduro’s capture is a clear violation of UN law. The US argument that the military only supported the arrest of the drug lord to disguise himself as the president is weak, especially given the US president’s announcement that the Americans will now control Venezuela’s oil reserves.
Shortly before his arrest, Maduro met with Chinese representatives in Caracas. China has condemned the US action, but at the same time, the American action has set a precedent that could facilitate Beijing’s efforts to gain control of Taiwan.
US Democratic Party representatives have also pointed out that the incident creates a situation where Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could similarly kidnap Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the same justification.
Read also: Trump: The US will lead Venezuela until a safe and thoughtful transfer of power to the next leader