In his speech expected on Tuesday, the 21st of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin may put an emphasis on how the war in Ukraine is an existential war for the survival of Russians, said Centre for East European Policy Studies researcher Mārcis Balodis.
According to the researcher, Putin’s main message may be intended for Russia’s domestic audience. Nearly a year has passed since the start of the invasion, but Russia’s strategic goals still haven’t been reached, he said.
Balodis argues that they have failed, and this is why Putin may attempt to look for ways to sway the public opinion about the war.
According to Balodis, Russia’s president may put an emphasis on Russia waging war no against Ukraine, but NATO and the western world in general in military, political and economic sense.
The narrative could also go in the direction of making Russia out to be the victim, adding also that everything is going well.
«Putin will try to turn everything upside down to demonstrate Russia as sustainable and the president – a good and capable leader. The main intention will be to mobilise the public and ensure no protests happen,» said Balodis.
The researcher mentioned that Putin will definitely address the war and will try to outline some victories and accomplishments, but they will be made-up, because on a strategic level there are no major accomplishments for Russia.
When asked if Putin could announce a mobilisation, Balodis said it is possible. He said the Kremlin is in a difficult situation, because they understand very clearly that the first wave of mobilisation wasn’t easy and caused problems even in loyal regions, such as Chechnya.
According to the researcher, Kremlin is well-aware that a new mobilisation wave may cause annoyance in best case scenario, and in worst case it may cause a threat, especially considering the hundreds of thousands who have dodged the draft by fleeing the country.
«Announcement or non-announcement of mobilisation will depend on the situation on the front – Russia’s accomplishments on the battlefield and its goals. If Russia decides to invade larger territories, they will require large amounts of manpower. This would mean the possibility of mobilisation is higher.
Since the end of January Russia has been pushing the attack in Donbas. Progress is slow.
The argument in favour or against mobilisation will be dictated by the situation on the ground and the country’s political settings that will direct armed forces,» explained Balodis.
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