Right-wing populist Andrej Babiš and his ANO party have won a landslide victory in a crucial Czech parliamentary election, but that doesn’t mean they’ll easily become prime minister, writes Politico.
ANO won 35% of the vote, significantly more than current Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s center-right coalition, Spolu, which won 23%. Babiš’s party has managed to attract the highest voter support ever for a single party.
However, that’s not enough, and since Babiš’s party has fallen short of a majority of the 200 seats in the lower house, he will need parliamentary support to form a government. With all major parties refusing to cooperate with Babiš, the process could drag on. Petr Kaniok, a political scientist at Masaryk University, said the talks would not be easy, and they would not be quick: “I really think that forming the government could take quite some time. It might drag on for several months.”
Babiš announced on the evening of the 4th of October that he would seek to form a minority government of one party, supported by other far-right parties.
The Czech Republic now could become another headache for the European Union,
but experts believe that Babiš is not Viktor Orbán – at least not until he is pressured by anti-EU extremists.
The extremists did not do very well in the elections, and this could be decisive. The far-left alliance of parties “Stačilo!” did not pass the 5% threshold. “Stačilo!” calls for leaving the EU and NATO, and for closer relations with Russia. The eurosceptic SPD, on the other hand, won 8% of the vote, which is significantly less than the previously predicted 13%, so this party will also have very little influence on Babiš. Political marketing expert Anna Shavit, who used to work for Babiš, pointed out that the politician could manage to form a government without making unfriendly agreements with the EU.
Kanjok also believes that the extremists’ poor performance in the elections is good news – both for Czech foreign policy and European policy. Since the left-wing radicals will have almost no say in the formation of the government, it could turn out to be less radical than it sounds.
Usually, the president of the country invites the leader of the winning party to form a government. Once a government with at least a 101-seat majority is formed, the president appoints the prime minister and ministers, and the government still has to survive a vote of confidence. However, Czech President Petr Pavel has previously indicated that he will not appoint ministers who urge withdrawal from the EU and NATO. The president will also consult with lawyers to determine whether Babiš should be excluded from forming a government altogether due to a possible conflict of interest. The winners of the elections own the agricultural giant Agrofert.
Given the failure of the left-wing radicals, there is probably no need to worry about the obstacles of eurosceptics anymore.
However, the question of Agrofert remains. Czech law prohibits officials from owning or managing companies that could create a conflict of interest with their legislative function. This does not mean that ministers cannot own companies, but the public interest must prevail over their own interests. Babiš said before the election that he would eliminate the conflict of interest, but did not specify how he planned to do so. Although the possibility of such a solution is remote, Pavel may refuse to appoint Babiš as prime minister if the solution to eliminate the conflict of interest is considered insufficient.
During the election campaign, Babiš spoke a lot about reducing aid to Ukraine, instead putting the country’s domestic needs at the forefront. He also said that he did not support Ukraine’s membership in the EU, and criticized Prague’s organized supply of ammunition to Ukraine, urging NATO to take over instead. The Czechs began delivering ammunition in 2024 after U.S. support was delayed, and Pavel said the initiative has significantly reduced Russia’s advantage. The Czech Republic collects donations from Western countries and also buys ammunition on the international market itself, and sends it all to Ukraine, thereby reducing the burden on other countries.
Kaniok said that Babis’s party could not be called openly pro-Russian, but it leans more towards Russia than Ukraine. EU officials are looking at Babis with concern, believing that, along with Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, he could become another person undermining the bloc’s common decisions. Babis himself denies this.
After the results were announced on the 4th of October, Babiš told reporters that he was definitely all for NATO and the EU: “The EU has 27 members. Ukraine is not a member of the EU.
We want, obviously, to talk about Europe, about European citizens, about the energy prices, the migration pact.”
Babis is a co-founder of the far-right European Parliament group “Patriots for Europe” with Orbán. Several representatives of the political group have already congratulated Babis on his victory.
The election winner is also still awaiting a verdict in a case of fraud over EU funds. The Prague Regional Court has yet to decide whether Agrofert defrauded the EU of two million euros that were intended for small and medium-sized enterprises. The outcome depends on whether the farm “Stork’s Nest” was separated from Agrofert, so that the company “appears” smaller. Unless new evidence emerges, the court will have to follow the Supreme Court’s decision in June that overturned a previous ruling that initially found Babiš innocent. There is a possibility that parliament will have to vote to strip the politician of his immunity.
Read also: Czech elections: Russian disinformation and Babiš leading the polls
Read also: Orbán against the world: who is he fighting and is he winning?