Author: Ventspilnieks
Soon Latvian citizens will go to vote to compose the new Saeima for the next four years. This year’s pre-election season is not too different from previous ones – the same talks about the same political parties on the media. There are more of them than usual, however. All of them full of commitment. Plenty of faces on billboards, frequent promotional trips and other campaigns to attract voters. Political experts are here to make things clear and explain the situation.
For the past three decades politologist Filips Rajevskis has been commenting and analysing political developments on different media channels in Latvia. He has experience when it comes to topics of public relations and lobbying, public communications on topics of finances and energy, as well as crises. Rajevskis holds a degree in political science, which he acquired studying at the University of Latvia. He has also studied political science at the University of Wales.
For eight years Filips Rajevskis has been the oldest national guard of the 19th Battle Provision Battalion of the National Guard. He says: if we don’t compose our country’s defence, then who will?
As for the upcoming 14th Saeima elections, Filips Rajevskis presents Ventspilnieks newspaper his outlook for this autumn’s political forecast.
-Looking at the current ratings, the 14th Saeima is looking to be very fractured. How much can be believe ratings?
-Ratings can be trusted, but they only reflect trends – don’t look to ratings for absolute answers to all questions. We can see dynamics of specific political parties – be it positive or negative. We can use ratings to make conclusions and try to come up with outlooks. However, we have to keep in mind that ratings are basically «yesterday’s photo». This is why those who try to interpret ratings as a prediction should be careful. It’s not always the case. I would say ratings are indicative and allow for certain conclusions. When organising campaigns, we can see how effective certain steps and measures are, because, for example, if there are many scandals, this does affect ratings and they are usually negative. The theory is that voters’ memory lasts six months. I would say Latvian voters’ memory lasts three months. Nevertheless, people do remember unpleasant things for much longer, but they forget small scandals very quickly.
-In the pre-election period, many social network users have filled in questionnaires to explain their beliefs and stance in regards to which party is the most appropriate to rule. Are questionnaires like that are sociologically justified and are results worth taking into account?
-I don’t believe these instruments because politics we have here are not as clean ideologically to allow for simple and precise measurements. It’s not sociology or any other science. I would call it a game of sorts, similar to many others on social networks – ones in which you put in your name and find out all sorts of information about yourself.
-As usual, political parties promise all but the high heavens: EUR 5 000 worth of child birth benefit, heating price cap, reduce prices on medicines, treat cancer, etc. Are such promises even possible to fulfil?
-Reduction of prices of medicines can be accomplished regardless of elections. The situation in Latvia is particularly bad in this regard. We all know the pharmaceutical market is held by a single business group. For a long time we’ve heard talks about changes to make medicines more accessible, to increase competition and to have pharmaceutical companies reduce markups. None of this affects the state budget directly, however.
As for enormous benefits or price caps, the state will need to compensate the difference. Otherwise we risk having a deficit, because suppliers will look where to sell their goods or present more expensive offers. Price caps – these have an effect. Someone has to pay the difference or we risk ending up in a deficit situation. For example, if a price cap is set for fuel, let’s say 1 EUR/l, although we all know it costs nearly 1.5 EUR/l now, most petrol trade companies will simply stop selling their goods in our country. If this happened, we would have to wait for global prices to drop to EUR 1 and when it becomes profitable to sell fuel here again. This is why, when listening to such promises we have to be very careful, because someone will have to pay.
-Is there any hope people will be more responsible this time than they were in municipal elections, which showed a record low voter activity – 34%? How can we motivate people to vote?
-Until now there has been a trend when people who are disappointed in their previous choice fail to find new favourites, which causes participation in elections go down and activity of other voters does not go up, all of which provides higher preference to more radical politicians. The composition of parties in the next Saeima may turn out more speckled than it is now.
Yes, I hope this time the percentage of voters participating in elections will be between 40% and 50%. As I’ve said – if you don’t want idiots in the Saeima, go and vote!
-There is saying that an old and well-known evil is better than a new and unknown one. Would you agree that, considering different crises, people will likely pick the politicians they know but dislike over ones they don’t know?
-People’s wish for improvisation generally goes down when there is a crisis and uncertainty about. Voters are prepared to take risks when their situation is not at risk. Then people consider changing things – maybe things will become better.
Everyone is well-aware things can get worse, and the last 30 years clearly indicate that whenever tough times appear, people usually switch to more conservative opinions in their own interests and become less welcoming of political experiments.
-Lembergs for prime minister! Why do some people still choose to step on this particular rake again and again? Is there even the slightest possibility of Lembergs becoming Latvia’s prime minister?
-I will answer the second question – I believe it’s impossible for Mr. Lembergs to be come Latvia’s prime minister. This possibility is made impossible by court hearings, the issue of access to official secrets, as well as the possible opposition from political parties. We can draw parallels with Ventspils City Council – the opinion there is that it’s impossible for the political party led by Lembergs to lead the city council. And now we see – Lembergs is no longer the mayor of Ventspils.
There is a collection of conditions that exclude the possibility of him becoming in charge. Aivars Lembergs is a very influential man and a capable speaker – he can formulate his ideas very well. But the problem is that he’s not getting any younger, and neither do his voters. The situation and voters continue changing. How he does we will see on 2 October. Still, ratings do not suggest any breakthrough.
25% of voters are the so-called people on the fence. Their votes are usually distributed evenly among leaders. Although the Union of Greens and Farmers consider «Lembergs as prime minister» a safe bet to play, nothing indicates it could receive the majority of those 25% of votes.
-What can we expect this heating season – has the government done enough? Do political parties have any clear and comprehensive plan to battle inflation?
-We will find our a lot after 2 October. Right now the rhetoric used by all political parties focuses on residents and their solvency: what to do to avoid debts piling up? The current government has become particularly generous with all kinds of benefits at its final phase. This is why I believe the next government will have to «whistle a different tune» when they meet face to face to compose the budget.
At the moment people’s minds are occupied by the upcoming elections and the tense geopolitical situation. In this context Latvia’s domestic policy and national security risks associated with it are some of the most important topics at the moment. This is why the topic of National Defence Service has become very popular lately. Why do we need mandatory military service? What will it give us? Is the National Guard not enough?
No, the National Guard is definitely not enough. There are too few of us. There aren’t many young people. I believe the National Guard is better suited for people over the age of 30 years. Youngsters of school age have the Junior Guard. After that they can pick – a career in the army or the National Guard. Outside of all this there are many people who are not military-focused and will never enter professional military service or National Guard. Nevertheless, they would benefit from having certain skills to feel safer and more prepared. Society in general needs basic knowledge and skills to feel safer as a community. If people have positive cooperation experience with armed forces, National Guard included, they will take mandatory military service much better.
National Armed Forces are very popular in Latvia. People trust the army, and the National Guard are part of the armed forces. Our troops and national guards have been present at many important events over the years. They have provided support to society, state and municipal institutions. Mandatory military service – its like a vaccine for society against crises. For a young man who has reached maturity this would be the moment when he becomes a real man. I’ve heard positive feedback from parents of youngsters who are thrilled to participate in reservist training.
-What would be your recommendation for the people going to vote?
-First of all – study promotional materials. Each voters should ask himself or herself several questions:
Did the quality of life go up during this government’s term?
Did the current government work in residents’ best interests?
How voters would describe the situation in healthcare and education?
I definitely invite all citizens to vote and cross out the names of politicians they don’t like!
Politologist’s thoughts on 14th Saeima elections – promises, ratings, voters’ habits and national security
