The possible three-party coalition being made by New Unity (JV) with the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Progressive Party (PRO) would basically be led by ZZS, not JV, said politologist and public relations specialist Filips Rajevskis in his analysis of the existing situation.
He said the Combined List (AS) is locked with JV in a psychological fight. Rajevskis notes that JV is prepared to go with any compromise to enter the government. AS, on the other hand, has representation from people who were once partners to ZZS. They know how this political party functions. This means AS knows what the 52-vote government would be like and how insistent JV is in regards to getting AS into the coalition.
Rajevskis believe the question is who gives up first: either JV caves in and agrees to preserve the previous coalition and add ZZS to it; or AS agrees to JV’s proposed coalition.
The politologist adds that the psychological fight has so far resulted in AS skipping the round of official talks on Thursday, the 31st of August. Prime minister Evika Siliņa had invited ZZS, PRO and AS to attend this meeting. She believes this is a significant signal. The politologist also referenced news reports and programmes during which AS representatives openly said: if there is a government model proposed by JV – “let it go forward!”
“I don’t thing they might cave in and enter the government together with ZZS, Progressives and JV, forgetting about their previously voiced demands. I believe
AS politicians have become psychologically prepared to work in opposition.
For JV this means having a coalition with 52 votes, with two votes from [Aivars Lembergs owned] For Latvia and Ventspils, who influence was mentioned in a rather negative light by prime minister candidate Siliņa,” explains the politologist.
According to him, this basically means the coalition would have only 50 votes plus two from For Latvian and Ventspils. Siliņa puts herself in an uncomfortable situation before JV’s voters and President Edgars Rinkēvičs.
There is no guarantee the head of state is happy to see
the prime minister candidate nominated by him is building a structure even more unstable than the last.
When asked what political parties could gain from any of the proposed coalition models, Rajevskis said Progressives would definitely benefit, because this party would enter the government. But it is unclear if voters could forgive them for working with ZZS in the government, breaking their previous promises and basically “screwing over” their voters in the process.
ZZS would benefit as well, which needs to enter the government after spending too long in the opposition. This party’s voters and supporters in regions expect ZZS to enter the government and start using administrative and government resources to support their municipalities. Rajevskis believes ZZS is supported by the most pragmatic voters who may understand the government model composed by ZZS, JV and PRO.
“Only one thing can be said about such a weak coalition – JV will not be in charge, ZZS will be. This is clear – ZZS will be the leading party in this coalition despite not being numerically the largest. JV would lose the most from this, because their voters aren’t very happy about their party becoming government partners with ZZS and Progressives,” said the politologist.
He explained that the majority of the people who voted for JV in the last Saeima elections considered it a capable political party. However, the politologist believes there is no evidence to suggest JV is capable, fulfills its promises or is able to successfully manage the country.
Rajevskis allows that JV will suffer a drop in support from their voters.
Though neutral, the National Alliance can be considered among those who will benefit from this. This party has had a principled position in regards to the government formation process. Voters would never forgive the party if they agreed to a coalition with Progressive Party.
If NA agreed to a four-party coalition model with the Progressive party, it is likely the party would follow the same path previously paved by the New Conservative Party.
As for AS, the politologist said a lot depends on how this party capitalises on voters who dislike ZZS and those who dislike the Progressive Party.
“The question is for how long and how successfully AS will be able to maintain this rhetoric. Of course, much will depend on how long such structures in the government last. If they last for a long while, it could negatively affect AS. I should say that when it comes to AS, it is the most difficult to assess their possible benefits and losses,” said Rajevskis.
When asked if a three-party coalition could pass the confidence vote in the Saeima, the politologist said they already have 52 votes, and it is unlikely any of their members could vote against. But the emotions and sharp rhetoric surrounding the topic of influence from once the Mayor of Ventspils Aivars Lembergs could cause someone “lose their nerve”.
“I believe a three-party coalition is likely to withstand a confidence vote, but it will be very fragile,” said Rajevskis.
As for the possible influence of Aivars Lembergs over the future coalition, the politologist said that it will be concentrated in “two golden mandates” of the 52 votes. If the coalition was composed of JV, NA, ZZS and AS, this influence would go down significantly.
“In this model a single party could kick another out, and everyone would have enough votes in the end. This can help neutralise Lembergs’ influence. At the moment
the prime minister candidate is going for direct and complete dependence.
Knowing Lembergs’ professionalism and ability to use influence, by running away from NA and AS, Siliņa is putting herself in a more difficult situation,” said Rajevskis.
Also read: Combined List leader: Lembergs has spat in the face of Canadian troops stationed at Ādaži base