Russia is still trying to maintain at least some influence by threatening the war with food crisis while its army is burning Ukraine’s grain fields. Although it is hard to predict the outcome of the war, it is clear Ukraine will win, said Riga Stradins University’s Department of Political Science and politologist Mārtiņš Daugulis told TV3 programme 900 seconds.
«I don’t even even the slightest doubt how the war might end. Russia is using salami tactic – cutting bit by bit. Ukraine is fiercely resisting. It has accomplished many victories in the opponent’s rear, weapons supplied [by the west] do their job.»
Daugulis also says the lengthy war and Ukraine’s fierce resistance indicates that countries are fighting as equals. «This is the first point of defeat for Russia. Before 24 February many believed Russia is unbeatable in war, etc.» The politologist also reminded there have been many atrocities committed by Russia’s army so far. «We might see new methods used, but in the long-term there are no doubts about the outcome of the war, and this outcome will not be in Russia’s favour.»
When asked when the war might end, Daugulis said it is clear 2022 will be spent «on the front». «Whether there will be a Christmas tree this year – no one can say. No one knows when the war might end.»
Disinformation
As for [President of Russia Vladimir] Putin’s words about Russia pulling punches in Ukraine until now, Daugulis said: «Keeping in mind who Putin is, we have to consider any talk is part of a disinformation campaign – nothing is said accidentally. The media sector there [in Russia] is an absolute nightmare. We can see combinations of the craziest ideas and attempts to sow fear among the Russian populace.»
«Russia, as we all know, employs a specific strategy – create problems and then resolve them. Even now Russia is flirting with incredibly dangerous ideas, saying there will be a food crisis and if you don’t invite us to sit at a discussion table, you won’t solve the food crisis,» reminds the politologist.
«At the same time, they are burning agricultural fields in Ukraine.»
«I don’t thin the west even bothers to respond to this bluff, rhetorical terror any more.»
Daugulis also said Russian diplomats are trying to maintain control wherever they can. «For example, at the G20 summit Lavrov walked from talks he didn’t want to hear. He only remained for conversations he wanted. Weak attempts to maintain any kind of control. Putin only speaks with the his portion of society because he has a big dictator’s dilemma. One the one hand he needs society to believe in something, follow and move, but on the other hand he needs for society to stay put – stay home.»