The European Union is drawing up a plan that has never been put into practice before – Ukraine could partially join the bloc as early as next year, reports Politico.
Brussels is trying to secure Ukraine’s position in Europe, away from Russia’s sphere of influence. The initial form of the idea suggests significant changes in the way the EU welcomes new countries, and the plan envisages that Ukraine could receive a seat at the bloc’s discussion table even before the full implementation of the reforms necessary to obtain the privileges of a full member state.
European officials and the Ukrainian government have said that Kiev’s accession to the EU is an urgent matter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, asked on the 6th of February about the need to officially set 2027 as the date of accession, replied that Russia would probably try to stop Kiev’s progress towards the EU, so it was important to set a specific date. This is essential so that both Ukraine and Europe, as well as the United States and Russia, can sign off on the date of accession.
EU officials have said the idea is attractive because it would give Kiev a breather to complete reforms to its democratic institutions, judiciary and political systems, while also averting the risk that Kiev could lose hope of eventually joining the bloc and turn away from the West.
But there are plenty of obstacles ahead, and it’s not just Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Speaking to five EU diplomats, three EU and two Ukrainian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Politico outlined a possible scenario for Ukraine’s accession.
First, the EU is supporting Ukraine’s candidacy, including providing informal guidelines on the negotiating groups, the legal path to membership. Ukraine has already been given guidelines for three of the six negotiating groups. During an informal meeting in Cyprus in March, the EU wants to provide the Ukrainian delegation with guidelines on the remaining clusters so that Kyiv can start working on them. Cyprus’s Deputy Minister for European Affairs Marilena Raouna said that, despite the challenging circumstances and the war, Ukraine has accelerated reforms in the country.
At the same time, an EU official stressed that there would be no “shortcuts” to reforms, a point echoed by two senior officials from countries supporting Ukraine, as well as other EU officials. One of the officials said that EU membership only brings benefits if changes are made during the bloc’s enlargement process, and the European Commission must maintain its position that it must act quickly, but reforms must also take place.
Kyiv has indicated that it is ready to do what is required. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the 6th of February that the country would be technically ready for accession in 2027. There is talk of ending the war and at the same time security guarantees, and
membership in the EU is a security guarantee.
On the 6th of February, meeting in Brussels, the bloc’s member states’ governments asked EC President Ursula von der Leyen about efforts to break the deadlock on the issue of new countries joining the EU. Von der Leyen is said to have offered several options and models that are being considered. Among them is the idea of ”reverse enlargement.” This would mean a transformation of the process – first accession takes place, and then the country gradually receives the rights and obligations of a member state. An EU official familiar with the content of the discussion said that this way the conditions for admission are adjusted to the situation, which is now completely different from when the admission criteria were drawn up.
The plan is not to lower the bar, but to send a strong political message to countries whose accession is being held up by objections from, for example, Budapest due to the war. In this case, it is not only about Ukraine, but also about Moldova and Albania. An EU official noted that sending a political message is essential – the war in Ukraine has been raging for four years and Ukrainians need support. The EU must provide it, both politically and psychologically.
While Zelensky has previously indicated that Ukraine will not accept second-class status in the bloc, an official familiar with Kiev’s thinking said it could be open to an offer that strengthens the country’s path to the bloc before it becomes a full member.
The idea has also faced criticism in the EU.
One official said that in principle, there should be no talk of two categories of member states – it would be unfair not only to Ukraine but also to Europe as a whole, and the main message should be that reforms must be accelerated. Germany is particularly opposed to the idea of multi-tiered membership, and is concerned that countries that join the bloc before they are ready will be promised things that Brussels cannot deliver. The idea is hoped to be supported by other bloc heavyweights such as Italy, France and Poland, and Germany will be persuaded.
A major challenge for Ukraine is the need to get all 27 existing member states to agree to its membership, which requires unanimous consent. Orbán, a close ally of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in the EU, has strongly opposed the bloc’s expansion.
The European Commission and bloc member states are eyeing elections in Hungary in April that could bring a change of power in the country and are working on ways to circumvent Orbán’s veto. Orbán faces stiff competition at home and has lost ground in opinion polls. He is using Ukraine’s EU membership as a weapon in his campaign, even declaring that “Ukraine is our enemy,” referring to efforts to cut off Russian energy supplies to Hungary, and saying it should never join the bloc.
All the officials Politico spoke to believe
Orbán will not change his stance before the election.
A senior EU official said the Hungarian prime minister’s antipathy toward Kyiv is deep-rooted, and the differences between Orbán and Zelensky are personal, more than just strategy and tactics.
Orbán and Zelensky have clashed publicly on several occasions. Zelensky has accused Orbán of “carrying out dangerous actions” by blocking Ukraine’s path to the EU and has called Budapest a “little Moscow.” Orbán, in turn, has called Ukraine the most corrupt country in the world and said Zelensky is threatening Hungary’s sovereignty.
Several EU officials have said they hope that if Orbán loses the election, his rival, Péter Magyar, could take a different stance on Ukraine. If Orbán remains in office, the EU will have to take the next step.
While Orbán’s resistance seems unwavering,
Europeans believe there is one person who can change the Hungarian’s mind:
U.S. President Donald Trump. The American, an ally of Orbán and who has expressed support for the Hungarian ahead of the election, has made no secret of his desire to be the man to end the war in Ukraine. With Ukraine’s EU accession in 2027 included in the 20-point peace plan, there is hope that Trump could call on Budapest to make concessions. Volodymyr Zelensky also pointed this out on the 6th of February. He said that under the peace plan, the US takes responsibility for ensuring that no one stands in the way of the plan’s points.
An EU official told Politico that the Trump administration had previously pressured Orbán to accept the EU’s sanctions package against Moscow.
If Trump’s card fails, the EU has another one up its sleeve. According to two EU officials, what about invoking Article 7 of the EU to use against Hungary?
Article 7 is used when a member state is seen as going against the bloc’s core values, and it is the most serious political lever the EU can use, as it means suspending a member’s rights, including the ability to participate in deciding on the admission of new countries.
The EU is currently reluctant to use this technique, believing it could play into Orbán’s hands ahead of the elections. However, there is a growing inclination in member state capitals to use it if Orbán is re-elected and continues to obstruct the bloc’s decision-making. One diplomat said that Article 7 could be used.
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