Like the Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, Latvian ex-PM Krišjānis Kariņš has officially submitted his candidacy for the post of NATO Secretary General. The chances of both of these candidates are politely considered – sufficient – in other parts of the world, at least publicly.
As it is known, Latvia has even commenced unofficial inter-governmental consultations about proposing their own candidate for the post of NATO Secretary General. This was confirmed by Latvian PM Evika Siliņa in an interview to TV3 on the 22nd of November. She commented that Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs is prepared to run for this high post.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs has also said that the ex-PM, who has experience working in the European Parliament, is a fitting candidate for this post in NATO.
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However, there is one important nuance to consider on this wave of enthusiasm.
Kallas was mentioned as a potential candidate for this post in NATO in spring,
but even then she was sceptical about this possibility.
The leader of the Estonian Reform Party did gain major accomplishments in the parliamentary elections held in March and formed a good three-party majority for the new government.
Looking at this cynically, at the time it was more logical for Kallas to be the “first girl in the village” – the uncontested leader in national politics. No matter what kinds of opportunities international posts may bring, often they are/seem more like exile. As it was mentioned in the famous Danish TV series Borgen, “In Brussels, no one can hear you scream” (I Bruxelles kan ingen høre dig skrige).
But now, in light of her personal “Russian business” scandal, tax surge and uncontrolled flare-ups, Kallas’ popularity and reputation among Estonians is shot. The rating of her Reform Party is down as well, but the party remains blindly loyal to its leader.
At the same time, other Estonian politicians and observers are chanting more and more that the only way out that would benefit everyone is the removal of “toxic” Kallas from politics and send her away to some international post. Yes, even to work in NATO! [Jens Stoltenberg’s term will end in October next year.] She could also be sent to the European Parliament – but will there be enough voters in favour of this?
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Krišjānis Kariņš, on the other hand, is already pushed deep into the corner to which Kallas is only headed. As it should be obvious, the post of the Minister of Foreign Affairs seems more like a boring stop on the path to something bigger. This could become the ex-PM’s personal tragedy – finding out that you’re “stuck” on Valdemara Street 3 and that the only way out is leaving active politics…
Just recently there was talk about Valdis Dombrovskis having to start planning his future because Kariņš wants to be in the European Commission. However, no matter what kind of arrogance Unity may have been taken over after the change of the ruling coalition, I allow the party still has some sense to realistically look at its chances in the highly important European Parliament elections.
Someone should will have to tell Unity’s supporters
about the decision to pull Aivars Lembergs and his supporting Union of Greens and Farmers from their deep state of opposition – even though voters were promised something else entirely. It is possible Kariņš could be the one selected for European Parliament elections. Especially if internationally respected Dombrovskis would have to be pushed aside for this.
One would ask should Kariņš even be allowed to run in these elections at all. It is possible he could fail and pull the entire New Unity along with him. No matter how loyal Latvian MEPs Sandra Kalniete or Inese Vaidere could be towards the ex-PM in public, I’m afraid their true opinions are clear on the matter…
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The reason why Kariņš’s and Kallas dream to become the next NATO Secretary General is so great in their current state is because they don’t need to qualify for citizens’ votes to get it. The post will go to the candidate agreed upon by governments of member states of the alliance.
Kallas seems to have an advantage over her Latvian colleague – her gender. In the history of NATO, the alliance has never had a woman Secretary General. The situation seems similar for the United Nations.
However, the Estonian PM’s hopes were downed quite a bit by Estonian public media ERR this week, which reported well-known British security expert Edward Lucas’ opinion about her chances. His verdict: yes, Kallas is perfectly suitable for work in NATO, but this perfection won’t do much for her. [His full opinion can be found here.]
Election of the next NATO Secretary General may prove to be a serious challenge even for Estonians’ great sense of humour, said Lucas.
Some NATO member states are more equal than others
– and this is no joke for anyone in Estonia, he added. Kallas is mentioned as a seemingly “excellent” candidate – with chances “on paper”.
Yes, she is a woman that hails from a country that joined NATO recently – but so far the Eastern European flank has not had a representative in a leading NATO position. The country does spend more than 2% of its GDP on defence. Until now all NATO leaders came from Britain, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Spain, Denmark and Norway.
Kallas’ main competitor is Dutch PM Mark Rutte. Lucas called him a Teflon candidate, because nothing really “sticks” to his reputation. He also does not seem to worry that Holland’s defence expenses reach only 1.58% of GDP.
What Kallas and her supporters consider an advantage – the PM’s and Estonia’s consistency in criticism of the Russian regime – could in reality be the politician’s weak point.
Lucas reminds that Frans Timmermans, former Vice-President of the European Commission, who has once again become active in Dutch politics, recently allowed in a TV interview that Estonia’s border with Russia is a potential matter that could affect Kallas as a candidate.
The British expect also concluded: Norway, too, shares a border with Russia, but this has not prevented Stoltenberg – Old West countries still consider him a safer choice than someone from the eastern flank countries. Looking at Lucas’ opinion, in the eyes of the oldest members of the alliance Kallas [or some other Baltic/Eastern European candidate] could be too risky of a choice – they are unable to keep a cool head in confronting Russia, allowing emotions and prejudices run their decision-making…
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This week a similar, but a more direct and harshly-formulated opinion about Kallas’ [non]chances of becoming the next NATO Secretary General was given to ERR by an Estonian experts – Indrek Kannik Director of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. According to him, the alliance’s superpowers have already decided in favour of Ritte.
Kallas has no chances because the US actively wants to avoid any deepening in the confrontation with Russia, whereas the “risky” Estonian PM could try to implement her country’s policy if she lands the seat of the secretary general.
Also read: Estonian PM to run for NATO leadership position
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