Ilona Bērziņa/Opinion piece
The biggest intrigue for the upcoming European Parliament elections will be whether or not Europe sees a surge of influence of right-wing populists, a surge of pro-Russian parties’ representation in the EP and a possible change of European Union’s political course. If voter activity turns out sluggish, this scenario will become entirely possible.
Forecasts from surveys performed by the European Foreign Affairs Council indicate that political parties that oppose Europe’s current policy and values could gain a gather a deal of support in EP elections. This could potentially lead to unpredictable consequences, because, according to University of Düsseldorf sociologist Alexander Heisler: “Hungary’s Viktor Orban is an example of all right-wing populists. If right-wing forces in other countries end up in governments, it will be the end for Europe.” (Goethe institut, “United Europe’s End”)
Latvia is represented by nine MEPs amount 270 in the European Parliament. This may seem like a drop in the ocean, but I would rather avoid strengthening the far right Identity and Democracy faction because of the inability of political parties to motivate our citizens to participate in EP elections. Our political parties have to put in a lot of effort in order to restore the trust of their voters, which was undermined significantly by the same parties’ failure to implement the promises they gave before the last Saeima elections. Otherwise a large portion of Latvian society will remain ruled by the belief that potential MEPs go to Brussels solely in search of greener pastures (an MEP’s monthly gross salary is EUR 10 075.18 and EUR 7 853.89 after EU tax and insurance contributions. MEPs are also paid nearly EUR 5 000 to cover general expenses. There is also a “daily allowance” of EUR 338, as well as coverage of transportation costs).
At the same time time, the number of seats received in the EP elections will be the measuring scale for political parties’ domestic political influence. While it would be a considerable win for Progressive Party to get at least one seat, it would be a catastrophe for a party like New Unity.
Dombrovskis is number one and Kariņš dreams of European commissioner’s seat
The fight within New Unity over who should be the party’s candidate number one – European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis or ex-Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš – concluded with Dombrovskis’ victory. Behind the scenes there is talk that the party’s choice was finally swayed in Dombrovskis’ favour by the recent scandal regarding the private flights used by Kariņš during his term. It is after this scandal that New Unity’s rating nosedived from 19.1% to 14.4% last year. In two years’ time since Dombrovskis has served as a European Commissioner, Latvian society has gotten used to him image as a European Commissioner, and New Unity hopes voters will want to see him remain in this post for another term.
But there is one big “but” – as it is known, candidates for the European Commissioner post are proposed by member states. And then there is are European Parliament Committees’ opinions to worry about. And this is where we move to the next intrigue – who will Evika Siliņa’s government propose for this high post? It is no secret that after failing to secure the post of NATO Secretary General, to which he applied himself, Kariņš now dreams about a European Commissioner’s seat. And it’s entirely possible New Unity to name him using the government’s hands. But there is also the issue of the far future. For now Minister of Foreign Affairs Kariņš uncharacteristically travels around Latvian regions. Political observers believe this is part of his EP election campaign. Krišjānis Kariņš was elected to the European Parliament twice (in 2009 and 2014), but Valdis Dombrovskis was elected three times (2004, 2014 and 2019). Dombrovskis did not run in EP elections in 2009 because he was Latvia’s prime minister at the time.
It is almost a certainty that New Unity’s list will also include MEP Inese Vaidere. However, it is also important to remind here that in 2014 and 2019 she ended up in the EP to replace Dombrovskis, since he was selected to work in the European Commission.
Ministers from the Union of Greens and Farmers won’t abandon their respective ministries
The intrigue of whether or not all four ministers from the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) could put aside their seats at the chance of running candidate for comfortable seats in Brussels remained until the very end. Yesterday we found out that the “face” of ZZS will be the head of ZZS Saeima faction Harijs Rokpelnis, who previously served as chairman of Mazsalaca County Council and a deputy of Valmiera County Council. It is entirely possible Mr. Rokpelnis is a well-known figure in both Mazsalaca and Valmiera, but will that be enough to overcome the 5% barrier? Perhaps ZZS doesn’t even want to be represented in the European Parliament? This possible, considering ZZS’s previous experience in EP elections, because the only time when ZZS got a seat in the European Parliament was 2014, and that happened solely thanks to Iveta Grigule’s massive pre-election campaign. Let’s not forget that this woman’s face could be seen on the rear end of nearly every bus…
The statement from ZZS about not having any plans to pick candidates from any of its partner parties, For Latvia and Ventspils included, seems very interesting in this context. But at the same time, it is possible Honour to Serve Riga (GKR) member Dainis Turlais could be included on the list of candidates of the Union of Greens and Farmers. Will this serve as some nudge before municipal elections, in which ZZS intends to run together with GKR? We’ll see.
Problems with Vivi could hurt Progressives’ chances in elections
It is no less interesting to watch the performances of Progressives. This party’s list of candidates includes former presidential candidate Elīna Pinto and ex-Mayor of Riga Mārtiņš Staķis. What we know about Pinto is that for many years she worked in various important European Union organisations. This means she knows the “drill”. She is fluent in English, German, French, Portuguese and knows a little of Italian. According to herself, she is independent enough to ensure no one can really “pull her strings”. And while members of Latvian diaspora know her name rather well, she is not as well-known in Latvia. The situation is slightly different with Mārtiņš Staķis. In an ironic twist he can be grateful to his work in Riga City Council, specifically the pointless poles installed around Riga a couple of years ago and which the people quickly dubbed with his name. His image as a national guardsman, choir singer, folk dancer and decent family man also played a part. In January 2024 he joined Progressives. In the same month he was announced as the party’s candidate number two for European Parliament elections.
Nevertheless, Progressives’ chances of landing seats in the EP are soured by the scandal with Vivi. Although Minister of Transport Kaspars Briškens is not to blame for the problems with new trains, residents largely associate the problems with his name and Progressives. It is possible that his announcement on the suspension of Vivi council and the order for a full audit of the dubious train procurement could help the situation a little. However, considering the mess with drastic closure of Latvian Post offices and the problems with Rail Baltica project, the party’s chances do seem rather slim. Be that as it may, even a single seat in the European Parliament would be valuable for Progressives. Otherwise it will be very difficult for them to position themselves as a serious political party.
No questions about National Alliance, other parties will have to work hard
MEP Roberts Zīle will be the leader on the list of candidates of the National Alliance. It is unlikely the party could replace him for the upcoming elections.
As for the Combined List and its list of candidates, we could see both ex-Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis and Twiter convoy leader Reinis Pozņaks, who is planned to become the party’s leading candidate. Like Progressives, this party too needs good results in EP elections, because otherwise it will start coming apart at the seams.
New Conservative Party (JKP) needs a good start as well in order to recover and come back to the political arena as a winner. Although JKP stresses a change in generations is needed for Latvia’s representation in the European Parliament, because “MEPs from Latvia that have served in the European Parliament for nearly 20 years have allowed the creation of an enormous bureaucratic apparatus in Latvia”. However, this party’s leading candidates for EP elections are the same “old faces” – former Minister of Transport Tālis Linkaits and former Minister of Welfare Gatis Eglītis.
After the failed start in the 14th Saeima elections, the “marriage” between For Latvia’s Development and Par movement fell apart. For Latvia’s Development decided to run in EP elections on its own with MEP Ivars Ijabs as their leading candidate, as well as former Minister of Defence Artis Pabriks and former Saeima deputy Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis. Like the two aforementioned parties, securing a seat or two in the European Parliament would mean JKP also securing its positions in Latvia.
Zhdanok’s followers are still around
And now about the results of the forecasts by the European Foreign Affairs Council for the European Parliament elections potentially coming to pass. There are three political parties running in EP elections that previously proved their ability to mobilise.
Harmony has announced intentions to run in EP elections with Nils Ušakovs as their leading candidate in hopes of securing a seat in the parliament again. For Stability political party will run in elections as well. This party’s main candidate Ņikita Piņins is largely unknown to the public, however. There are also followers of [Tatyana] Zhdanok from the Latvian Russians Union, who will run in elections from the party Pamats (Foundation) and Centre Party. It is already known that Latvian Russians Union will be represented by Miroslavs Mitrofanovs and Inna Djeri. This may be paranoia, but who can say Zhdanok’s past voters (since the law prohibits her from running in elections) won’t find a new “protector of the Russian world” in the likes of Inna Djeri or someone else?
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Nine out of 720 – Latvian political parties start officially suggesting candidates for EP elections
