Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making little effort to give the impression that he has a plan now that Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei has been assassinated, writes Politico.
The chaos and internal discord in Tehran could also be beneficial to the Israeli right-wing politician. Netanyahu has for years directed military action and sabotage against the Islamic state’s nuclear program and religious government. Now that Khamenei is dead, Netanyahu is closer to realizing his political ambition – to end the Iranian threat.
For now, Israel’s “after” plan leaves much to chance. Now the Iranian people themselves must deal with the brutal security forces through widespread protests, and it is unclear what government could replace the previous theocracy. On the evening of the 28th of February, Netanyahu called on Iranians to throw off the shackles of tyranny and seize the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break free from dictatorship. He added that Iranians must take to the streets and do the work. US President Donald Trump also appears to be following the same strategy, insisting that the Iranians now have the only chance to reclaim their country.
Netanyahu believes that there will be a winner in any case, even if the uprising plunges the country into violent chaos. Ideally, a regime friendly to Israel will emerge in Tehran. At the same time, Israel often chooses a practical approach to politics, and even unrest can benefit its interests. This has also been seen in Syria and Lebanon. Netanyahu has not helped the Lebanese authorities deal with the Shiite group Hezbollah; he has only continued to carry out missile strikes and drone strikes. The Israeli has also caused headaches for the new leadership in Damascus, supporting the Druze minority. Netanyahu has also often been accused of exploiting the differences between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to his advantage.
Netanyahu is guided by a certain logic –
if countries are busy with internal conflicts, they cannot turn against Israel.
Therefore, it would be a mistake to think that the Israeli prime minister’s main and only desired goal is stability in Tehran. Internal disagreements would also be useful: if Iran is too weak to enrich uranium and support Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, that is also a certain victory.
The goal of the war in Iran, according to Netanyahu’s foreign policy adviser, Ofir Falk, is simple: to win. In a text exchange with Politico, Falk said that means eliminating the threat posed by the Islamist regime and its supporters. Asked what Israel thinks about what is happening inside the Iranian regime, Falk replied, “We’ll see.”
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Politico that Netanyahu and Trump have no plan and are driven by optimism. Olmert said that Netanyahu wanted war and Trump is trying to do something special, but they have no plan other than hoping that the Iranian government will collapse.
The strategy of overwhelming the enemy with force and then hoping for a smooth transition to a favorable regime has proven to be a resounding failure, and
there are signs that events in Iran will also be chaotic.
Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, General Colin Powell warned then-US President George W. Bush that if the government and regime were to be overthrown, someone would have to take responsibility for the country, and it would be Bush: “If you break it, you have to take it.” Neither Netanyahu nor Trump seems to think so, and the responsibility now lies in the hands of the Iranians, which is a game of luck.
According to a report by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan, Netanyahu has convinced his cabinet that Khamenei’s death will shorten the military operation because it will encourage the regime’s opponents to rise up. Few doubt the Iranians’ desire to change the country, but the fall of the regime also requires a fracture in its security forces. So far, Iran’s political and military infrastructure has shown resilience, and major protests in recent years and months have been suppressed with force, mass arrests, and executions. It is unclear who the security forces could surrender to.
Despite losing a number of leaders, Iran is still capable of retaliatory attacks in the Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have vowed to retaliate with the most devastating attack in Iranian history.
All indications are that the regime is holding on even after Khamenei’s death.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Khalibaf said the country was prepared for such moments and had a plan for various scenarios. He said in a speech on state television that after the leadership council is formed, everyone will see the power and unity of the officials, the defense force and the people.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Security Council, announced that a three-person council would be formed on the 1st of March, consisting of the president, the head of the judiciary and the head of the volunteer paramilitary group Basij. The council will run the country until the 88 experts select a new leader, which is expected to happen soon.
Israel will undoubtedly try to disrupt the process; it also targeted potential future Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon last year.
Meanwhile, Iran’s various branches of state, which under Khamenei operated with partial autonomy and were not controlled, are still able to function.
Olmert is also not convinced that the government will collapse.
He said he would be surprised if Iran changes. Olmerti pointed out that in Syria, Bashar al-Assad killed more than half a million people and millions of Syrians became refugees, but it still took ten years for the regime to fall. He added that Iran has a population of 90 million and the regime will kill many more without losing control. However, he acknowledged that US and Israeli actions could weaken Iran’s military power, which in itself is not a bad outcome.
The question remains whether anything can be achieved without a united opposition. Danny Citrinovich, a former head of the Iranian branch of the Israeli intelligence service and a fellow at the Atlantic Council, wonders whether external military pressure can really rely on the Iranian people, who lack strong leadership, especially when they have to confront a regime that has been under the control of the Revolutionary Guard for 47 years. He said that there is no united, organized opposition in Iran that could take advantage of the unrest among the ruling elite. Public discontent is real and widespread, but fragmentation and repression limit its opportunities for expression in the political arena. Citrinovich stressed that Khamenei is gone, but predictions of the regime’s collapse are premature.
If the regime collapses, various conflicting candidates are ready to take power. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah overthrown in 1979, is presenting himself as a leader who could lead the country towards democracy. The “People’s Mujahedin of Iran,” previously listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, is also said to be ready to take power. The situation is further complicated by possible unrest among local ethnic communities.
Former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy said he fears military intervention could cause chaos in the Middle East and have unforeseen consequences.
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