NATO’s Article 5 should never be seen as an absolute guarantee, but rather as a political commitment that depends on the will of member states, warns Jānis Garisons, co-founder of the Nordic Resilience Organization (CIREN) and former State Secretary of Latvia’s Ministry of Defense.
Speaking to news agency LETA, Garisons emphasized that while panic is unnecessary, Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defense capabilities instead of relying solely on NATO.
Ukraine Faces Growing Pressure
Currently, peace or ceasefire talks regarding the war in Ukraine do not seem to be happening from a position of Ukrainian strength, Garisons noted. Instead, pressure is being applied not on Russia, but on Ukraine, which does not bode well for Ukraine or Europe.
Despite this, Garisons remains cautiously optimistic, stressing that Europe’s stance will be crucial in shaping the future.
“The key issue is how Europe positions itself in these negotiations—not just in words, but in actions, particularly in how it supports Ukraine. Strengthening the defense capabilities of Latvia and other European nations is the only way forward,” he said.
Europe must urgently expand its defense industry
Garisons believes that Europe must rapidly develop its military industry, a task that is feasible but requires decisive action.
Large-scale government defense contracts are necessary to stimulate the industry. Without guaranteed orders, defense production will not grow.
Expanding defense capacity also means increasing military units. NATO has reportedly assessed a need for an additional 49 brigades, which would require at least 250 000 troops and thousands of tanks and armored vehicles.
Article 5 is politically driven, not automatic
Garisons highlighted a critical misconception about NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. The activation of Article 5 depends on the political will of member states—it is not an automatic guarantee of military intervention.
Internal political dynamics within NATO countries will always influence decisions about collective defense.
“Panic never helps. We have the means to act and improve the situation. NATO members must do more—not just for NATO itself, but to reassure their own societies that they are capable of defending themselves,” Garisons emphasized.
As already reported, the US has suspended the provision of military assistance and intelligence information to Ukraine.
There are also concerns in Europe about possible US plans to reduce military spending and contingents in Europe. Given these uncertainties, Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security, rather than relying solely on NATO and the U.S. for protection.