Latvia’s Ministry of Health has developed three possible scenarios for a possible Covid-19 outbreak in autumn this year, as the ministry’s director of Healthcare Department Sanita Janka reported during a meeting with Saeima’s Social and Employment Matters Committee’s Public Health Sub-committee.
So far 31 000 Covid-19 patients have been hospitalised. The highest number of simultaneously treated Covid-19 patients was 1 338 at one point.
71% of Latvian residents have commenced their Covid-19 vaccination. 68% have completed vaccination and 27% have received booster shots.
Janka said investments have been made to ensure hospitals are able to accept up to 3 300 Covid-19 patients if such a necessity surfaces. 2 178 Covid-19 beds have been repurposed – 280 of them are new and 736 were acquired using hospitals’ own funds. There are also 107 new intensive therapy beds.
In preparation for a new Covid-19 wave, Europe has come up with five scenarios. Latvia has prepared three.
Janka said one of the scenarios provides for covid being considered a seasonal infection. This means low public immunity and repeated infections. In this case there is a risk of many tough infections and an increase of deaths in risk groups. However, healthcare capacity is not exceeded and is able to function normally.
The second scenario estimates the Covid-19 outbreak may turn our difficult to control, which may result in low public immunity and an increase of hospitalisations and deaths, Janka said. In this case as well the capacity of healthcare will not be exceeded. However, if need be, it may be necessary to reduce inpatient services, said the ministry’s specialist.
In the third scenario Covid-19 may turn out to be an uncontrollable disease. This means a large number of hospitalisations. Janka said with this scenario the capacity of healthcare would be exceeded. This is why it may be necessary to limit inpatient services, because the number of beds in hospitals cannot exceed 3 000.
Janka explained that in both first two scenarios workloads for hospitals would be minimal. This means it would be enough to ensure vaccination of risk groups. In tougher cases, on the other hand, it would be necessary to impose restrictions on certain services.
«If it becomes a seasonal infection, it would be enough to vaccinate risk groups – patients older than 60 years, patients suffering from chronic illnesses, people working in high-risk jobs (social care centres and hospitals). If the infection becomes hard to control, vaccination would be organised at general practicioners, healthcare institutions, vaccination rooms, shopping malls and mobile vaccination buses to ensure people who come to contact with other people are vaccinated. If the infection becomes uncontrollable, however, we will have to organise wide vaccination,» said Janka.
In all three scenarios testing and treatment is to be organised using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), screening – using antigen or self-test kits. In the second and third scenarios it is planned to provide additional tests in high-risk locations – schools, for example.
Janka said at the first Covid-19 scenario, the infected will receive information from the Disease Prevention and Monitoring Centre (SPKC) about possible epidemiological safety services. Contact persons will not be surveyed. This will be done in the first and second scenario. If the infection becomes widespread, however, risk groups will be investigated as well.
Isolation will be imposed for high-risk locations. Residents will be urged to work remotely and use protective masks and FFP2 respirators.
Janka explained that positive Covid-19 sequencing will continue in summer to determine infection vectors. Monitoring of sewer water will continue as well.
At the same time, patients who have recovered from Delta variant of Covid-19 and who experience lasting health problems will be provided with dynamic health monitoring.
On top of that, the National Health Service plans to prepare a list of patients older than 60 years who have chronic diseases and who are not vaccinated for Covid-19. Ministry of Health plans to continue vaccinating seniors sand risk groups for Covid-19.
As for SPKC’s readiness for the new Covid-19 wave, Janka said it is important to complete IT solutions to ensure early warning and epidemiological monitoring.
The ministry has submitted the plan for Covid-19 scenarios for autumn to the Ministry of Finance.