Inflation in Latvia went down rapidly in recent months. Since June it has been significantly below 10%. However, this has yet to bring any tangible improvements for Latvia’s economy, according to Citadele Bank economist Mārtiņš Āboliņš.
He said the physical sales in the retail sector in Latvia have not grown since April 2021. According to information published by the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, in July retail trade turnover in Latvia in comparable prices went down by 2.5% when compared with the previous year. Over the course of the month it went down by 0.5%.
Stagnation or even decline in the retail sector is also observed in other European countries. In Lithuania, for example, retail trade volumes went down by 1.4% in July.
Inflation is an important reason that explains why sales volumes in Latvia have not grown at all in the past one and a half years, but it isn’t the only cause. The number of foreign tourists coming to visit Latvia remains below the pre-pandemic numbers. Since the lifting of epidemiological restrictions,
there has been a rapid rise of residents’ expenses on various services. Residents seem to spend less on goods.
For example, this year Latvian residents spent 27% more money on tourism trips than last year. The most rapid growth in retail trade in July was observed for online shopping and car fuel sales – turnover in these two sectors went up by 6.4% and 5.2% respectively.
Sales of food products went down by 5% in July. Sales of household electronics went down by 11.8%.
“However, the drop in sales of food products, I believe, does not describe the situation in this sector very accurately. Because of very high food prices caused by inflation residents have significantly changed their food shopping baskets – expenses on food products have increased more slowly than prices themselves. In statistics this change in behaviour or consumers is perceived in the form of drop of sales of food products. Similar drops in sales of food products are also observed in many other countries even though it is unlikely we’ve started eating less,” explains the expert.
Although physical sales of goods in Latvia have not been going up for a long time, Āboliņš was surprised by the drop in retail turnover in actual prices in July – by 1.6% when compared with July 2022. Data composed by the Bank of Latvia for card payments indicates that Latvian residents’ general expenses increased by only 6% in August when compared with 2022. This is significantly slower than they did in the beginning of the year despite the 12% growth of average wages in Q1.
Lasting high inflation and interest rate rise have negatively impacted the financial situation of households.
The number of newly-issued consumer loans in Latvia increased by more than 20% this year.
The volume of household deposits in bank in July was only 0.8% higher when compared with 2022.
The expert assures there is good news as well: after one and a half years Latvian residents’ purchasing power is once again on a rise, unemployment is record-low and this year’s heating prices will be tangibly lower than last year’s prices. He predicts by the end of the year sales volumes in Latvia will start going up again even though there is no reason to expect a rapid rise in turnover.
Also read: 54% of Latvian families forced to save up or borrow money to send children to school