Some Lithuanian officials have made comments about easing sanctions or changing the country’s attitude towards Minsk, but have since retracted their comments.
Observers have suggested that these could be attempts to test whether public sentiment is changing.
On the 29th of January the chairman of the Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee, Remigijus Motuzas, said on the “Žinių Radijas” radio program that discussions were underway about the content of possible talks with Minsk. He later retracted his statement. On the 30th of January, politician said that it was just hypothetical speculation, that no political discussions had taken place or were planned, and that he had answered a theoretical question.
This is not the first time that Lithuanian officials have made statements and then denied the possibility of reviewing relations with Belarus. One such issue is the sanctions imposed on agricultural fertilizer producer Belaruskali. The company is considered one of the main sources of income for the regime of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. The restrictions on mineral fertilizer exports were intended to increase pressure on the regime after the violent suppression of protests in 2020. Critics have said that this has not yielded results.
Last year, the United States lifted its sanctions on Belaruskali in exchange for the release of political prisoners.
This raised concerns that Lithuania and Brussels could also feel pressure from Washington to lift the sanctions.
Belaruskali has extensive business interests in Lithuania, and some have suggested that the company once played a role in promoting corruption in the political environment.
In December, the Lithuanian president’s national security adviser said in an interview with Žinių Radijas that the easing of sanctions may be related to the presence of US troops in the region, but later indicated that the remarks were a spontaneous reaction to a journalist’s question.
Later, Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas suggested that the funds from the fertilizer transit should be used to support Ukraine, while in January, MEP Vytenis Povilas told LRT that Lithuania should resume fertilizer transit.
Vytis Jurkonis, who works with Belarusian and Russian oppositionists, said that developments in Lithuania give reason to believe that the possibility of restoring relations with the Minsk regime is being examined. He said that this feeling is further reinforced by the move of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Poland and the rapprochement of Lithuanian politicians with other Belarusian opposition figures, such as Maria Kolesnikova. She is one of the political prisoners released from prison by Minsk following an agreement with the United States. She said that Europe should restore ties with Minsk to achieve the country’s move away from Russian influence.
Jurkonis said that people close to Kolesnikova have already met with Lithuanian politicians,
and it is no secret that lifting sanctions is a top agenda item. Kolesnikova’s team declined to comment.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė also met with Kolesnikova on the 2nd of February.
Jurkonis suggested that speculation could be quelled if Lithuania took concrete steps, such as supporting stricter European Union sanctions.
Sources in the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party have indicated that any response to the meeting proposed by Minsk at the level of deputy ministers would mean recognizing the existing regime, and added that even hypothetical discussions could only take place after the new EU sanctions are approved at the end of February.
Read the full article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2826194/testing-waters-lithuanian-officials-signal-possible-shift-in-approach-to-belarus
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