Today, many acknowledge that we in the Baltic states were right to warn about Russia’s drift towards militarism and autocracy, as well as its imperialist ambitions. Russian imperialism has deep roots. It existed before Vladimir Putin and will most likely survive him. This is not a “paranoid belief—it’s caution,” writes Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže in an op-ed for The Economist.
“Our key message is that Russia is not just Ukraine’s problem. It is a systemic threat to the international order. Putin’s ambitions go far beyond Ukraine’s borders. He dreams of spheres of influence and dominance outside Russia. He seeks to divide America and Europe in order to fragment NATO. He is deepening his ‘no-limits’ partnership with China. He closely cooperates with countries like Iran and North Korea and, through his Africa Corps, ruthlessly exploits Africa’s natural resources,” notes the Latvian Foreign Minister.
“There is no indication that Russia is ready for peace in Ukraine. Despite the fact that Putin’s ‘three-day campaign’ turned into a three-year disaster, his war machine is still operating. Any weakness only emboldens Putin to continue his aggression and to seek at the negotiating table what he has failed to achieve on the battlefield,” writes Braže, pointing out that Russia continues—and is even intensifying—its missile and drone attacks on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities. These attacks may escalate further following Ukraine’s daring and complex drone operation deep inside Russian territory last weekend.
The Kremlin is also escalating its unconventional attacks on European countries, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and election interference.
Against this backdrop, Latvia sees a clear path to lasting peace in Ukraine based on three pillars:
strengthening national and NATO collective defense, weakening Russia’s ability to wage war, and sustaining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself diplomatically, militarily, and economically.
“There must be a rapid increase in investments in deterrence and defense capabilities. NATO allies should strive to raise defense and related spending to 5% of GDP. We must focus on aligning military, intelligence, and internal security resources to respond to Russia’s unconventional attacks, overcoming transatlantic disagreements, and achieving full EU energy independence from Russia,” emphasizes Braže.
She stresses that the only realistic path to peace is through a maximum pressure strategy. “We must deprive the Kremlin of revenue by applying tariffs on energy imports, imposing financial restrictions, and lowering the oil price cap. This is a realistic approach because as long as Russia is ruled by this regime, it will remain focused on war. Russia is clearly rearming and preparing for long-term confrontation with the West, and we must be prepared accordingly.”
Keeping these insights in mind, Braže concludes that it is time to abandon, once and for all, any illusions about détente—peace achieved through concessions.