The year 2023 may bring decisive developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, it remains entirely possible the war may continue until 2024, according to Latvian military and security experts.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky reported this week that his country’s defence and security forces are preparing for 2023, which should prove decisive in the war against Russia.
Former commander of Latvian National Armed Forces Raimonds Graube believes winter and spring will be decisive. This is the time when Ukrainians have an opportunity to maintain the initiative. Russians, on the other hand, may officially declare war and perform general mobilisation, making the situation in Ukraine into a different kind of war.
Graube predicts next year sides may start negotiating with one another even though Ukraine may have failed to recover all territories, such as Crimea, by then.
«Crimea’s recovery in a military way would be a very, very difficult military operation, considering Crimea’s geography and the attitude Russia has towards it in an ideological and constitutional manner. I believe it is difficult to do, but if it does happen, it would cause real threats for a nuclear conflict. I believe all sides understand as much, and I predict there will be talks about Donetsk and Luhansk, because their liberation using military means is much easier than Crimea,» stressed Graube.
Latvia’s former Minister of Defence Artis Pabriks said: he wants to believe next year turns out decisive and completely ruins Russia’s and Putin’s hopes of forcing the west give up with supporting Ukraine. «I believe the breakthrough should not happen in the first half-year, because during that time Putin may still hope for a cold winter’s effects, weakness of the west and Ukraine’s spirit breaking. If this does not happen, we can hope for some changes in summer,» he predicted.
If Ukrainians show considerable capabilities, Russia may have to change its tactics, allowed the ex-minister. At the same time, it is possible that «Putin’s authoritarian regime» acts illogically and, despite a break in the way, the regime doesn’t care and may decide to continue the war in some form.
Pabriks believes that as the war continues, Russia’s capabilities should decline. «The first half-year could bring a breakthrough in Ukraine’s favour, but there are several requirements to stop the war and bring Russians to the negotiation table and allow Ukraine recover its sovereignty and territories. I don’t see the war going in Russia’s favour, even despite the aid from Iran and partial support from China, which the country may receive,» said Pabriks.
He is convinced the aid provided to Ukraine by the west will not go down. He believes it will only increase further, considering the increasing capabilities of the western military industrial complex.
Whether or not Ukraine will be able to recover territories occupied by Russia in the east and Crimea is hard to say, but Pabriks nevertheless believes it will be decided by military and negotiation factors. He believes Ukraine should recover Crimea. Perhaps it will not happen in a rapid military attack or a single day, but at the moment it is unacceptable for Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s society to have Crimea taken from them, but the western world has no arguments why Ukraine could not request the return of Crimea.
Pabriks did not deny that Russia may try to present Crimea as a holy symbol that cannot be given lost no matter what, but the west and Ukraine should not fall into «this trap».
Latvian National Guard officer, Maj. Jānis Slaidiņš said it is difficult to say if next year could turn out a military breakthrough, but there will definitely be political negotiations and changes on the battlefield. At the moment there are no indications of any cardinal changes coming in the next three to four months, because it is clear Russians are preparing to continue the war and continue training forces in Belarus.
Russians need time. This is why they are on the defence to hold territory. If they keep these territories, in the future they may serve as a staging ground for another attack. Although some Ukrainian military officials have made optimistic outlooks in regards to the possible recovery of Crimea next year, these remain «dry announcements», said the Latvian major.
The war will be decided by troops, a lot will depend on regions, meteorological conditions and supplies from the west. Without sufficient aid from the west, Ukraine will not be able to maintain high military intensity. Political developments elsewhere in the world may add new corrections, such as China’s activity and relations between Kosovo and Serbia, said the expert.
Slaidiņš sticks to his outlook provided in October – that Russia will declare war on Ukraine officially, but this will depend on the situation on the front. Declaration of war would allow Russia use additional resources. It is already observed that Russia’s propaganda is hard at work preparing residents for this state, but propaganda can do nothing without orders from the Kremlin.
«We can see on Russian television that there are preparations for mobilisation and there are many talks about «a great patriotic war», when «everything for the front», «everything for victory». These factors indicate Russians are preparing for a big turn,» said Slaidiņš.
Former NBS commander Juris Dalbiņš is convinced that 2023 will be decisive, because it is clear Russians are concentrating forces and win the war. For Ukraine, on the other hand, victory is the only way to preserve independence, he said.
«Now is the time when it is important to look how both sides prepares their military resources and plan their future operations. I agree that next year will be decisive for them, because they are not prepared to lose,» said Dalbiņš.
If Ukrainians fail to find a way to recover their territories, Crimea included, they will not win the war. At the same time, it is clear Russia is not prepared to let go of its ambitions and wants to keep these territories. ‘The west must do all it can to make sure Ukrainians accomplish their goals and win this war. Then this conflict, like any war, can end at a negotiation table,’ he added.
Dalbiņš invited observing Russia’s «long arm» in Serbia, which, according to him, is used to divert the west’s attention and reduce support for Ukraine.
«Russia will performed different intelligence and influence operations. They will use their agents to divide USA, NATO and EU in their support of Ukraine. There is also the matter of Taiwan, because in this region we will see which superpower becomes number one,» said Dalbiņš.
Latvian National Guard’s 1st Riga Brigade commander, Col. Kaspars Pudāns doubts the war in Ukraine could end soon, even though Ukraine has many advantages and the general initiative. At the same time, there is a lot Ukrainians need to recover, but after Kherson and Kharkiv, it may not be possible to perform the same successful operations, as the Russian front is not shorter.
For Russia it is vital to mobilise resources, because they have yet to send all they have to the front. For Ukraine, on the other hand, continued support from the west is vital. Supplies of ammunition more than anything else.
Munitions is an important factor for Russia as well. This country is waiting for support from its allies as well.
Pudāns said he does not really believe in a military solution. If both sides continue insisting on their strategic goals, there can be no end solution in sight. Only once one side agrees to a compromise it is possible to end the war through diplomatic means. If each side wants to accomplish said goals using military means only, the war continues.
Pudāns also said Russia still has not performed a comprehensive staff and industrial mobilisation. «They have the resources, but the question is whether they are prepared to go all in with goals in Ukraine, because this could weaken their resources to other risks,» he said.
Recovery of large territories, Crimea included, through military means will be very difficult, because Russia has prepared defensive lines both in the front in the depths of the peninsula. «The front has become smaller, Ukrainians no longer have any advantages they had before, when they were able to influence Russia’s supply lines. To get to Crimea, Ukraine needs to recover the left side of Dnipro River, recover the remaining territories of Kherson and Zaporozhzhia to secure flanks. Secondly, there is the marine factor – Ukraine, unfortunately, does not have any fleet capacity,» said Pudāns.
Ministry of the Interior parliamentary secretary, retired colonel Igors Rajevs said next year may turn out decisive, but he has read a theory that the way may end next summer or in summer of 2024 with a peace treaty. «There is the option for the war to continue indefinitely, coming in and out of an active phase and transitioning more to the situation that was between 2014 and February 2022,» said Rajevs.
According to him, the war could end either way – with Russia’s or Ukraine’s victory. For Russians to win, they need considerably more forces. This means Putin will need a much larger mobilisation. If Putin does not perform the mobilisation and the west continues supplying arms to Ukraine, in this case the latter will receive enough of an advantage to win the war, said the politician.
«If the situation remains as is, then we may see the war continue next year or for even longer. In this case we may see a confusing peace treaty that may suffer the same fate as the Minsk Treaty,» said Rajevs.
Recovery of more territories, Crimea included, using military means is unlikely because Ukraine doesn’t have sufficient military capacity, said Rajevs, adding that for Ukraine to win, they need talented commanders and aid from the west, real supplies of arms, not drip-fed aid.
Rajevs also said that such complicated weapon systems like Patriot requires lengthy training periods, but there are other, simpler weapon systems, such as howitzers, tanks, war places that do not require lengthy training.
«If nothing changes in any meaningful way, we may see the war continue for a year or a year and a half until both sides exhaust one another and agree to sign a peace treaty,» added Rajevs.
The armed conflict between Russian-backed Ukrainian separatist forces and Ukraine’s armed forces started in 2014. In February 2022 Russian army commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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