The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has entered its fourth week, creating an international crisis and seemingly slipping out of US President Donald Trump’s hands, Reuters reports.
Energy prices continue to rise on the international market, and US allies are in no hurry to get involved in hostilities in the Middle East. Trump last week called NATO countries cowards for refusing to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president also insisted that the campaign against Iran was going according to plan. However, his statement on March 20 that the battle had been won militarily contradicts reality, given that Iran has shut down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export route for the Persian Gulf region, and continues to strike across the region.
When Trump took office in January last year, he promised to avoid getting the US involved in “foolish” military conflicts, but now he seems to have lost control of both the outcome of the conflict and the message of war with Iran. The lack of a clear strategy for ending the conflict threatens Trump’s presidency, as well as the Republican Party’s chances in the November midterm elections.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Republican and Democratic administrations, said that Trump has created a box for himself in the form of a war with Iran that he can’t find his way out of, and that angers him. A White House official disputed that description, pointing to the large number of Iranian regime leaders killed and saying that the operations in Iran were an indisputable military success.
Trump’s diplomatic, military and political power came to a head in mid-March.
The US president was initially surprised by the reluctance of NATO countries and other key allies to send their fleets to the Strait of Hormuz. An official close to the situation, who wished to remain anonymous, told Reuters that some White House advisers had advised Trump to quickly find a way out of the situation by starting a military operation, the scope and duration of which were not discussed with them.
Some analysts believe that the allies’ reluctance to get involved is explained not only by the desire to avoid being drawn into a conflict, the launch of which was not discussed with them, but also by a response to the belittling of traditional allies that Trump has carried out since returning to office 14 months ago.
Disagreements have also begun to appear in relations with Israel. Trump has insisted that he knew nothing about the Israeli attack on the gas fields before it, while the Israelis have indicated that the attack was coordinated with the United States.
Trump could now choose to intensify his attack on Iran, perhaps even taking over Iran’s oil hub of Kharkiv and deploying troops to the Iranian coast to search for missile launchers. However,
that would involve a long-term military operation that would certainly be met with resistance from the American public.
If both sides refuse to engage in negotiations, Trump could simply declare victory and walk away, but that would leave frustrated Gulf partners left to deal with a threatening and agitated Iran.
The war has also shown that Trump’s iron grip on the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement is loosening, and influential influencers are speaking out against the conflict. While supporters have not turned their backs on the US president, Trump could lose some of his support in the coming weeks if oil prices continue to rise and US troops are sent to Iran.
Since the first strikes on the 28th of February, the US presidential administration has become increasingly aware that the conflict and its consequences should have been considered more carefully. Analysts said that the biggest mistake was misjudging Iran’s response. Instead of surrendering, Tehran responded with missile strikes across the region, almost completely closing off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Regardless of whether Trump’s advisers foresaw the risks, the Americans are currently unable to respond adequately. Former US ambassador to Turkey and Afghanistan John Bass said that the White House failed to assess possible scenarios if everything did not go according to plan.
As the conflict continues, Trump’s fury at his inability to control how the war is being presented has also become more visible. In recent days, the US president has accused the news media of betrayal by providing information that, in Trump’s opinion, threatens US efforts in the Middle East.
Read also: 100 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in March: who risks in a war zone?