The Iranian regime has warned that it could attack European cities in any country that supports US President Donald Trump’s strikes, writes Politico.
So far, drones launched by Tehran have already attempted to attack Cyprus, with one of them hitting a British Royal Air Force base on the island, while others were shot down before reaching their target. The incident has prompted Britain, France and Greece to send fighter jets, warships and helicopters to Cyprus to protect the island from further attacks.
While the leaders of Britain, France and Germany have said they are ready to launch military retaliatory operations in the Middle East if necessary to defend themselves, Tehran has threatened these countries with attacks on Europe.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned on the 3rd of March that Tehran poses a threat that reaches deep into Europe. He stressed that it must be clearly understood that Iran is close to producing nuclear weapons and the ability to launch ballistic missiles, which pose a threat not only to the Middle East region, including an existential threat to Israel, but also to Europe. Rutte also added that Iran is an export point for terrorism, which has been planning attacks for decades, including against people in Europe.
Antonio Giustozzi, a representative of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said that, according to available information, Iran has been working on the creation of intercontinental missiles capable of hitting 10,000 kilometers, which would put Europe and even the United States within its radius.
It’s unclear whether Tehran would be able to produce and launch such experimental missiles under sustained attack.
He told Politico that realistically, the farther the missiles have to be launched, the less accurate they are. “Let’s say they had four or five long-range missiles. There may be some value to target something in Europe just to create some excitement and scare public opinion from intervening,” Giustozzi said.
Iran is known to have several medium-range ballistic missile systems in its arsenal that can reach targets at a distance of about 2,000 kilometers. Depending on the launch site, these missiles could reach southeastern Europe, including parts of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.
The southern part of Romania is home to a US missile defense system designed to intercept potential Iranian attacks. According to the Romanian defense minister, heightened security measures have been implemented at the site.
Tehran has long said that the 2,000-kilometer radius is a self-imposed “ceiling” for the country’s ballistic missile program.
This excludes most of Europe from the missiles’ range, while at the same time allowing them to attack targets in the Middle East.
The Kiev-based defense consultancy Defense Express has said that the Khorramshahr missile could reach targets 3,000 kilometers away if equipped with a lighter warhead, putting Rome and Berlin within range. However, it is unlikely that Iran would have a large number of such missiles.
However, Iran has invested heavily in the development and production of drones, and they are perhaps Tehran’s most versatile weapon. The Iranian Shaded drone has been in use by Moscow’s forces since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and is estimated to have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers. To reach targets deeper into Europe, the Shaded would have to fly low over Turkey and Jordan, and has already been shown to be capable of reaching Cyprus. Analysts believe that the British military base was attacked with this type of drone, and they may have been launched from Libya, where the Iran-friendly Hezbollah group operates.
Giustozzi said that chaos in Europe could also be sown with commercially used drones, even toys. Iran is known to have created a network of agents in European countries who use criminal groups to carry out attacks. They could be ordered to direct drones to civilian airports, thereby forcing flights to stop and causing chaos in air traffic. Attacks could also be carried out by directing drones equipped with explosives to military facilities. However, as Giustozzi emphasized, the risk could be low because, since this has not been the main mode of operation in the region, Iran has not had the opportunity to import components for making bombs into Europe.
Tehran has recently focused more on intimidating and threatening critics of the regime in Europe,
especially among the Iranian diaspora. According to Western intelligence, Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism is a combination of direct operations by its forces and the involvement of organized crime groups, which allows for credibly denying a connection to the attacks.
Incidents in the past decade include the arrest of an Iranian diplomat for handing explosives to a couple who were to carry out a bombing at a large event of the Iranian National Resistance Movement. The diplomat received a 20-year prison sentence.
Albania severed all ties with Iran in 2022 after a massive cyberattack on its infrastructure. Four years earlier, Albania had expelled the Iranian ambassador and several diplomats – they were planning to carry out attacks on Iranian dissidents. The Netherlands has accused Iran of involvement in the murders of two dissidents in 2015 and 2017. Iran’s plans to carry out assassinations and attacks have also been reported in Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Sweden, the UK and other European countries.
The threat posed by Iran is not just physical, and the regime is considered a serious player in the field of cybercrime. Experts and officials have warned that
Iran could launch a new wave of cyberattacks on both government systems and critical infrastructure in Europe.
Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission’s vice-president for technology and security, told Politico that the situation must be watched very carefully. She added that the online sphere is very important, serving both as a recruitment channel and, especially, as a tool for spreading propaganda.
Iran is considered one of the four powers (along with China, Russia and North Korea) that pose the greatest cyber threat to Europe, but there is currently little sign that it is actively attacking European systems. Since the US strikes began, Iran’s cyber activity has decreased significantly. This does not allow us to breathe a sigh of relief. Gil Messing, head of the Israeli cyber company Check Point, said that Europeans should be prepared that exactly what happened in the Persian Gulf can and will happen in Europe. He noted that the company has already seen evidence of cyber attacks in Cyprus, and while it does not yet see anything like this elsewhere in Europe, it is still ahead.
Experts indicate that Iran’s capabilities to carry out cyber attacks, although reduced, are still considerable.
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