BNN has obtained exclusive information from Belarusian transport sector experts revealing the export volumes and logistics cost structure of Belarusian mineral fertilisers in 2025. These cargo flows, geographically located in the Baltic Sea region, are currently generating hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the infrastructure of the aggressor state rather than for the Latvian economy.
Last year Belarus exported approximately 12 million tonnes of mineral fertilisers through ports in Saint Petersburg, as well as through ports on the Caspian and Black Seas, with around 85% of the total volume transported via the Baltic Sea.Most of these cargoes are handled in Russian ports, including Port of Ust‑Luga and the port of Saint Petersburg.
Hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into Russian logistics
Experts outline the logistics cost structure for transporting one tonne of fertiliser:
10 USD – transportation within Belarus
28 USD – transportation within Russia
20 USD – transshipment in Russian ports
The minimum total logistics cost within Russia therefore reaches 48 dollars per tonne. When applied to 12 million tonnes, the total logistics value reaches approximately 576 million US dollars annually. Port handling services alone could amount to at least 240 million dollars per year.
Money sustaining the aggressor’s economy
Cargo that could previously have been handled in Baltic ports is now generating hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Russian infrastructure.
These funds translate into: profits for port operators, tax revenues for the Russian state budget, investments in transport infrastructure.
Belarusian fertiliser exports have not stopped. Global demand remains strong, and shipments continue in millions of tonnes each year. The only change has been the transit route.
The uncomfortable reality of sanctions policy
An annual cargo flow of 12 million tonnes could potentially generate significant economic benefits for Latvia. Such revenue could strengthen the Latvian budget and contribute to defence financing instead of supporting the aggressor state’s economy.
Before Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Belarusian fertiliser exports relied heavily on infrastructure in the Baltic region. Industry data indicate that around 80% of these cargoes were exported through the Baltic states, with the majority handled via the Port of Klaipėda in Lithuania. This means that cargoes which previously generated significant economic benefits for Baltic ports have now been redirected to Russian terminals, where they produce revenues for the infrastructure of the aggressor state.
At the same time, the situation raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the sanctions mechanism. If exports continue in millions of tonnes and cargo is simply redirected to alternative infrastructure, the economic effect may be the opposite of the original intention.
At the international level, this issue is already under discussion. The United States has reportedly initiated discussions in Brussels about the possibility of legally reviewing and adjusting certain sanctions mechanisms in order to prevent situations where economic benefits indirectly flow into Russian infrastructure.
Read also: Political scientist: If the US lifts sanctions on fertiliser shipments, there are serious reasons behind it
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