Whether Russia will succeed in capturing the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is a matter of time, and while the city’s fall won’t destroy Ukraine’s defenses, it will weaken Kyiv in the eyes of the US, Reuters writes.
Moscow reported on the 1st of December that it was in full control of Pokrovsk. Ten days later, Ukraine continues to say that its troops are still holding positions in the north of the city. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the city had a population of about 60,000 and was a major military transportation hub. Now it has become the latest in a series of devastated settlements.
Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian charity Come Back Alive, said the latest round of pressure to end the war on terms that are disadvantageous to Ukraine is taking place alongside heavy fighting on the front lines, helping Russia influence the views of US President Donald Trump. Ukraine must try to maintain American friendship while resisting a peace plan that would require Ukrainian forces to completely withdraw from the entire Donbas region, including Pokrovsk.
Kyiv has said it has been fighting for Donbas since 2014 and has no moral or legal right to hand over sovereign territory to the invaders. Trump’s rhetoric has become harsher, and this week he said Russia was winning the war and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should start “accepting things.”
However, the pace of the Russian offensive in Pokrovsk suggests that
Moscow’s forces are finding it very difficult to make headway on the front line,
where drones are being used. Russia currently controls about 19.2% of Ukrainian territory, up just one percentage point from the end of 2022.
Military experts support Ukrainian officials’ assessment that Ukrainian defenses on the eastern front cannot suddenly collapse. Ukrainian fortifications, drones and the fragmented nature of Russian attacks are cited as advantages. Kyiv has reported that Russian soldiers are moving in groups of six or fewer, relying on one or two soldiers to take each individual building.
The Ukrainian side has indicated that the Russians are trying to seep through various parts of Ukrainian positions, and the defenders lack manpower. Concerns about the reserve forces have been raised many times during the war, and have also been voiced by allies, including the US, whose officials have called for an expansion of military conscription. The issue is highly sensitive, and the Ukrainian government has refused to lower the conscription age below 25 to protect young people from being drawn into the bloodshed.
The initial version of the US-drafted peace plan envisaged that Ukrainian forces would leave the Donetsk region. Zelensky and European leaders announced this week that a revised version of the peace plan with 20 points had been drawn up, but no agreement was reached on the transfer of territories to the occupiers. The new plan will soon be submitted to the USfor consideration.
Putin said in early December that Pokrovsk would be a suitable place from which to continue attacks
in any direction. Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka pointed out that Russia is trying to gain areas with higher terrain to be able to send drones further.
Moscow’s army has recently captured territory in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, but major territorial gains are unlikely. Muzyka said the Russian operations are proceeding extremely slowly.
Ukraine has stressed its desire to secure a just peace, keeping in mind that Trump, who has spoken since taking office of ending the war “in one day,” may decide to cut off aid to Kyiv, which is paid for by European allies. Kyiv hopes that Europe will be able to offer more military and financial support of its own.
Ukrainian forces have been trying to reduce the capacity of Russia’s oil industry since August by attacking refineries, thereby reducing the income that allows Moscow to finance the war. They have targeted ships from Russia’s shadow fleet that come to collect oil in the Black Sea.
A European defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the war could drag on for years unless Trump or Putin act to stop it, but Putin does not appear to want to end the aggression.
Read also: Why is Donetsk so important for Ukraine’s defense?
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