US President Donald Trump’s already implemented and planned secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports could help significantly reduce the movement of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Gulf of Finland, writes ERR News.
More than half of Russia’s crude oil exports are made through the Baltic Sea, mostly by tankers with questionable documentation. Much of Russia’s oil is exported through the Gulf of Finland to India and China, which enjoy the benefits of cheap but sanctioned Russian oil.
Marek Vaht, a member of the board of Terminal gas stations, said that Russia has three main export routes. One is through the Baltic Sea, where 60% of the total oil is exported. Less than 40% is exported through the Black Sea, and a small amount is exported via the Sea of Japan.
The two main ports for oil exports through the Gulf of Finland are the Port of Ust-luga and the Port of Primorsk, both near St. Petersburg.
Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods on the 6th of August, and India has already begun to look for alternatives to Russian oil, and has likely already found them. Vaht noted that, comparing the last weeks of July with June, the volume of oil imported from Russia has decreased by almost 20%, meaning that
India has found another oil supplier.
The United States and the European Union have already blacklisted almost half of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” consisting of about 600 tankers that transport Russian crude. The White House is reportedly planning to announce sanctions aimed specifically at the shadow fleet.
Marek Kohv, a researcher at the Center for International Security and Defense, said that these restrictions will be effective. “If we take a look at what happened after the U.S. [previously] sanctioned some of the shadow fleet vessels, their effectiveness in generating revenue dropped drastically, and this allows us to state this is one of the most effective sanctioning methods,” Kohv said.
However, the commander of the Estonian Navy, Captain Ardo Riibon, emphasized that despite all the activities and pressure, the shadow fleet continues to grow. The more intensive the inspections, the more forged documents are discovered. According to the captain, documents certifying the origin of the ship, the flag it is flying, and the insurance status are forged much more often than before.
While the dubious documents are being checked, the shadow fleet ships are still allowed to leave the Gulf of Finland, because without hard evidence, the Estonian Navy does not have the right to detain the ships for more detailed inspections. Estonia also cannot check how many of the tankers are taking oil to India and China right in front of its and Finland’s eyes. Riibon said that about 40-45% of ships go to Indian waters, and another 10-15% to China, but this assumption is based on information provided by the ships. The captain noted that most of the time, the true cargo and ship data is hidden or partially withheld until the ships leave the Baltic sea.
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