“For now, there will be some tightening up and shouting in the government, but it will stand,” says Rajevskis.
“For now, there will be some tightening up and shouting in the government, but it will stand,” public relations agency “Mediju tilts” director Filips Rajevskis told LETA, commenting on the exchange of threats about losing office between Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (New Unity) and Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze (Union of Greens and Farmers).
He believes the government could fall only if something “outside the framework” and unexpected were to happen, as in 2013, when the government led by Valdis Dombrovskis (New Unity) collapsed after the Maxima supermarket disaster.
Rajevskis recalled that at the time there had been complete confidence that the government was “stable as a rock,” and no one had either the interest or the desire to bring it down, as elections were approaching. Dombrovskis was criticized for various reasons, but “the government just stood and stood,” Rajevskis remembered.
The expert considers the current situation similar.
“Siliņa is a champion – she has survived five no-confidence votes
– but there is no genuine desire or action to replace the government,” he said.
For a change of government, new coalition talks would have to begin behind the scenes to determine which political parties could cooperate in a new government, a potential prime ministerial candidate or at least the party nominating one would have to emerge. “None of that is happening,” Rajevskis stressed.
He said the opposition parties Nacionālā apvienība (National Alliance) and Apvienotais saraksts (United List) have no interest in bringing down the government and feel sufficiently comfortable in opposition, as the coalition is weak.
Meanwhile, for Jaunā Vienotība (New Unity), moving into opposition would not be suitable, as its voters support it as a party of power, Rajevskis noted.
He also recalled that Augusts Brigmanis, deputy head of the parliamentary faction of the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (Union of Greens and Farmers, ZZS), has pointed out that starting from a position with administrative resources is still somewhat better.
Although voters of Progresīvie (The Progressives) dislike the current government for several reasons, the party clearly shows it does not want the government to fall or for ZZS to feel so offended that it “leaves the table,” Rajevskis argued. He assessed that in the so-called timber industry case,
The Progressives are “torpedoing civil servants” and completely ignoring the political leadership.
He noted that in this case The Progressives are “attacking” State Chancellery Director Raivis Kronbergs, which is an indirect attack on the Prime Minister, aimed at weakening her, since the State Chancellery Director is a very important element in the prime minister’s power vertical. “If such a key person is knocked out of her pyramid, then she won’t be smiling and saying she is used to threats,” Rajevskis believes.
The expert suggested that parties directly or indirectly interested in preserving this government have, to some extent, “put New Unity into certain frames.”
As previously reported by LETA, commenting on the exchange of statements this week—when the Prime Minister said she does not rule out requesting Agriculture Minister Krauze’s resignation, and Krauze responded that his resignation would mean the fall of the entire government—Siliņa stated that coalition partners “are constantly announcing something” and “someone is constantly threatening me,” but “threats are unlikely to influence me.”
According to Siliņa, it is the partners’ choice whether to work in this coalition and government or not.
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