The President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko is not entirely unwilling to be a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin and continues efforts to look important and keep the situation in Belarus under his control. However, the war in Ukraine is making it more and more difficult, says vice-president of Bratislava-based GLOBSEC think tank and director of GLOBSEC institute for politics Alena Kudzko.
According to her, the fact that Lukashenko is not liked by residents in Belarus has been clear to all since the protests of 2020. She also says he has no chances for positive relations with the west after the way he violently suppression of protests. This is why Putin is his only support in a political, financial and security terms, said the expert, whose nationality is Belarusian.
«But he wants to remain in power. He doesn’t want to be Putin’s puppet,» said Kudzko.
She stressed that this is the reason for Lukashenko’s efforts to remain important and remain in control of Belarus, but this is becoming more and more difficult, especially since the start of the war.
«Russian armed forces are permanently stationed in Belarus, and without a clear goal – we don’t know what they intend to do, for how long they will remain, and there are doubts Lukashenko might force them out if he wanted to,» said Kudzko.
GLOBSEC vice-president also said that in the past 20 years Lukashenko has always tried playing in both directions – the west and Russia – in an attempt to secure the best possible position for Belarus from both sides. However, after the protests of the year 2020 his ability to manoeuvre have become very limited. Belarus is also economically dependent on Russia.
Kudzko stresses that, in spite of his bravura, Lukashenko understands the people do not support him. His supporters, according to her, do not represent the majority. On top of that, many of those people only support him because he brought peace to Belarus.
«If this was no longer the case and military activity started in Belarus, Lukashenko would be left with fewer supporters,» said the expert.
She believes the general attitude towards Lukashenko among Belarusian residents is not unambiguous. «The more people complain, the more worried Lukashenko becomes in terms of the risk of protests repeating, as well as the possibility of protests having a different outcome,» admits Kudzko.
GLOBSEC expert is confident that the majority of people in Belarus do not support the war in Ukraine and the absolute majority, at least 90%, would definitely object to taking part in this conflict. If Belarus sent its army to Ukraine, the expert believes the country would be swept in a wave of protests, especially if the army suffers many casualties.
According to Kudzko, it is unlikely Belarus may see another wave of protests similar to those observed in 2020 if Lukashenko announced mobilisation, but the situation would still become hard to control – protests would likely break out here and there. Hard times would start for Lukashenko and he would make mistake after mistake, which would be very dangerous for him, said the expert.
She said many Belarusians say they are against the war but can do nothing, because going to protests means ending up in prison, where people are treated brutally.
«Many people in Belarus feel powerless because they understand nothing like that should be happening. At the same time, they see no way to change anything,» Kudzko claims.
As for the migrant crisis on the border, the expert said that Belarusian residents, too, are shocked with such measures from their government, claiming that Lukashenko is engaged in human trafficking.
«He [Lukashenko] considers himself a brilliant strategist who knows how the west will react,» Ludzko said, laughing.
According to her, Lukashenko believed Baltic States would have been intimidated by the influx of migrants to the point of begging them to stop in exchange for lifting sanctions and becoming friendly with Minsk once again.
«He thinks it is possible to blackmail Baltic States and Poland this way,» explained the expert.