A rapid rise of electricity consumption is expected in Latvia after 2030. Between 2030 and 2035 consumption growth may reach up to 100%, according to results of a study by KPMG ordered by JSC “Augstsprieguma tīkls” on consumption development trends in Baltic States and Nordic states.
By 2029 electricity consumption growth is expected to be moderate and will be stimulated by electro-mobility or use of electricity in the transport sector, use of electricity in heating, as well as general growth of welfare.
Factors that slow consumption will be the improvement of energy-efficiency, worsening of the demographic situation and development of micro-generation. As a result, consumers will receive less electricity from the grid, preferring local generation solutions such as solar panels, according to the study.
The study analyses possible consumption trends in five segments – industry, public and commercial sector, households, transport and energy – based on eight factors that can influence demand for electricity – demographic trends; changes in energy efficiency and micro-generation, welfare level, electro-mobility, heating solutions, as well as development of technologies that transform electricity into fuel or P2X.
Results of the study by KPMG were also discussed with the Ministry of Climate and Energy, which is the institution that is the main energy policy maker and is responsible for the green course in Latvia.
Minister of Climate and Energy Kaspars Melnis notes that Latvia is moving towards the status of a stable electrical energy exporting country. It provides consumers cheap and green electricity. Europe, Latvia included, is committed towards reorganising to a climate-neutral environment, which the union plans to accomplish by the year 2050. In order to do this, it is necessary to reduce harmful emissions. This can be done in two ways – by replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy resources, or by using less energy resources by promoting energy efficiency.
“Working on the National Energy and Climate Plan for 2030, we are expecting a 57% rise in renewable energy resources in consumption. Development of wind, solar and hybrid projects in Latvia will play a major role,” says Melnis.
AST board chairman Rolands Irklis says that in the past ten years average annual electricity consumption was 7 TWh. Currently this shows a tendency to go down. At the same time, looking at the ambitions of developers of power plants using renewable energy resources – the demanded volume of energy from the grid is five times larger than Latvia’s maximum consumption.
“In order for the optimistic scenario outlined in the study to come to pass and for Latvia’s electricity consumption to double, we need a more rapid AER project development and support mechanisms for the development of P2X technologies,” stresses Irklis.
Although there are differences among the countries touched in the study, generally speaking, all of them are expected to have a rise in electricity consumption.
KPMG experts performed forecasts on the assumption that from 2030 onward development of P2X technologies will be economically justified.
AST board member Arnis Daugulis notes that the methods listed in KPMG study will allow AST to prepare the power adequacy assessment more accurately. AST prepares the assessment to put together its annual report on electricity production and consumption trends for a 10-year period at least. Results of the study will help plan the adequacy of the capacity of the Latvian power grid, as well as evaluate and justify development projects of the power grid.
As previously reported, in 2023 AST operated with turnover of EUR 156.42 million, which is 55.4% less when compared to 2022. The company’s profits went down by 9% and were at EUR 9.96 million.
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