At the moment, the tactical and operational initiative on land is in the hands of Ukraine in the war Russian started, said the Chief of Latvian National Armed Forces Armament Control Service, Col. Ēriks Naglis in an interview to Ir magazine.
According to him, this is primarily a military victory, as Ukraine has successfully liberated Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukrainians also have moral initiative, the Latvian colonel said.
Fights are currently the heaviest in Bahmut, Avdijivka and Donetsk. However, Russians have yet to secure any ground there. «The general situation can be described as standstill – one side attacks, then – the other. The situation is generally heavily stable,» said Naglis.
Russia is forced to focus on the defence, which is a major change when compared with the start of the war.
«From Russia’s side we are seeing chaotic behaviour – Ukrainians and their operations are forcing them to move from one sector on the front to another. […] The enemy must be overcome using cunning and smarts. Ukrainians have succeeded in this,» added the officer.
According to the expert, the general situation on the front indicates how successfully Ukrainians are able to fight and force Russia to play by their rules. «This must be maintained. They must not stop,» said Naglis, adding that he believes Ukrainians may have pauses on the wider front, but they should definitely look for the next weak point [in Russia’s lines] to strike.
The Latvian colonel believes one of the options Ukrainians should use is take the initiative in Zaporizhzhia region and try to drive a wedge between Russian battle groups and drive them either to Melotopol or Berdyansk, because this wedge would give another effect – the entire Russian army stationed in Kherson would be cut off from supplies by land, which would put at risk the flanks of the Russian army in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, putting them in a very complicated situation.
As for Crimea, the expert said the situation is far more complicated, because Russians consider it their territory, which means far more serious defence.
«Russians would have to reorganise their forces and have them sent to defend Crimea. This would give Ukrainians a chance to liberate Donetsk and maybe some other region. Taking of Zaporozhzhia and Melitopol would be the next task Ukrainians should consider. Surely Ukrainians themselves agree, which is clear from movements of their forces. This could be the next step,» said Naglis.
«Crimea is a completely different story. Russia will be far more serious about its defence. Crimea is an important Russian military bastion. Its Black Sea war fleet is stationed there. Ever since the annexation of Crimea they have put in efforts and resources to create a large and varied force there, including missiles. The loss of Crimea would mean the loss of its entire Black Sea fleet and influence over the Black Sea. This would be a very strong strike against them,» added the officer. «This does not mean Ukraine shouldn’t try to retake this territory. But this is a more complicated matter. But it is definitely worth creating a sense of threat. This would relieve some stress on other sectors of the front.»
According to Naglis, Ukraine should «maintain the pace, the initiative, and push, push, push», because if Ukraine stops, Russia will have a chance to regroup.
The colonel admitted that Russia’s hopes are incomprehensible when looking at the battlefield.
«The situation is fairly bad for them. Yes, Russians only hope is attacking Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, power lines. Without electricity you have a long line of problems – no light, no heat, no water. The goal is singular – terror. They want to force people to suffer, so that they exact pressure on the president and the government to stop the war and negotiate with Russia.»
«This is likely the trump card Russia focuses on. If you can’t accomplish anything on the battlefield, terror tactic will be used to force Ukrainian residents pressure their government. […] Unfortunately, Russia has picked this tactic without any success on the battlefield,» concluded the Latvian military official.