Retail prices for diesel and gasoline in Latvia may decrease if current trends in the global market persist over the long term, fuel traders told the news agency LETA.
Gatis Titovs, Head of the Fuel Category at Circle K Latvia, noted that recent developments in international politics—particularly the new U.S. tariffs—have affected oil and oil product prices on global exchanges. Additional impacts come from the current global supply and demand balance.
“If this trend continues in the long run and no other influencing factors change, it’s possible that we will also see a drop in retail diesel and gasoline prices in Latvia,” said Titovs.
However, he stressed that price drops in the global oil market do not always immediately or directly translate into retail fuel prices. The retail price is not only determined by wholesale costs but also by the euro-to-dollar exchange rate, geopolitical developments, taxes, and retailer-specific costs such as logistics and supply chain expenses. Local market conditions, demand, and existing fuel stock levels also influence price dynamics.
“Fuel prices can change with a time lag of several days to even a few weeks due to oil market fluctuations,” Titovs added.
Jānis Vība, Chairman of the Board at energy trader Virši-A (operating under the brand Virši), told LETA that Brent crude oil prices have dropped from $74 per barrel at the end of March to around $63 per barrel currently.
He explained that this sharp decline is due to two main factors. First, the U.S. administration’s decision to significantly increase tariffs on most global imports raises the likelihood of a global recession in the near future, which could lower future oil demand.
Second, oil-producing countries within the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to increase output starting in May 2025, which will raise global oil supply.
“As a result, we’re seeing a drop in demand along with a rise in supply, which together are causing a significant decline in oil prices,” Vība explained.
He added that fuel prices at gas stations typically follow oil price trends with a slight delay, due to the length of the supply chain and the volume of oil product reserves held by each retailer.
As previously reported, global stock and oil markets have seen sharp declines amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs.
On Saturday, April 5, Trump’s 10% import tariff on goods from all countries—except Canada and Mexico—came into force. On Wednesday, even higher tariffs will apply to around 60 of the U.S.’s trading partners, including the European Union, Japan, and China. China will face a 34% tariff, while the EU will face a 20% tariff.
In response, China announced that as of April 10, it will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imports from the United States. Meanwhile, the EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on U.S. goods—including steel and aluminum—but reportedly will not include bourbon.