At present, a Russian military threat to NATO in the coming years is unlikely, although much will depend on developments in Ukraine this year, said Commander of the National Armed Forces (NAF) Kaspars Pudāns in an interview with the LETA news agency.
Commenting on public statements by various Western officials about approximate timelines for a potential Russian attack on NATO, Pudāns noted that he does not assess the likelihood of an attack by referring to a specific year, as the possibility of an attack can theoretically exist even today.
Comparing the military capabilities of the aggressor state, Russia, Pudāns said it cannot be claimed that they have changed significantly this year compared to last year. He pointed out that Russian soldiers continue to be killed in the war in Ukraine, and that most of Russia’s restored capabilities are still being sent back into the fighting in Ukraine.
Pudāns stressed that the objective Russia would want to achieve is also important. The West, including the Baltic states, has for years already been on a kind of “punishment list,” he said.
Looking ahead, much will depend on what happens in Ukraine this year,
Pudāns noted. A halt or slowdown in fighting would allow Russia to regroup its forces more quickly, including through a possible new large-scale mobilisation and decisions on what to do with soldiers who could be released from combat operations in Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia is closely observing the actions of the West, which, in Pudāns’ assessment, has become much stronger, more militarily cohesive and, in many respects, more politically united.
“Progress has been made in how we can take decisions on joint action. They also see what targets have been set in terms of rearmament and the development of the military industry, and if countries adhere to these goals, that reduces Russia’s options. This is why the years being mentioned now – 2028, 2029, 2030, even up to 2037 – are cited, because by then parity, especially in the military-industrial sphere, may even out,” Pudāns emphasised.
Taking this into account, the NAF commander believes that
an external military threat to NATO in the coming years is unlikely, as Russia would not be capable of carrying it out.
At the same time, there are many other tools Russia is more likely to use to achieve its objectives.
In the interview, Pudāns drew attention to Russia’s hybrid operations or even military activities that could be concealed and would not necessarily look like attacks on NATO territory or a direct assault aimed at occupying territory.
“The goal is for us to start thinking: no, no, we need to arm ourselves more, which we are doing, and to divert our attention from Ukraine. However, this has been going on for almost all the years of the war, and it has not produced results,” Pudāns said.
Regardless of what Russia might tell its own society and the rest of the world about achieved goals or victories if the war were to stop and a ceasefire were reached, the greatest danger lies in the fact that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin would retain a desire for revenge. Understanding that Russia has suffered for years, sustained losses, and would go down in history with such a legacy, Putin might seek some kind of shining victory or success, Pudāns reasoned.
“That is a potential risk. Does the necessary basis for such a victory exist at the moment? At present, it does not,” concluded the commander of Latvia’s National Armed Forces.
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