Natural gas prices are expected to remain at their current level in the coming months, but they may be influenced by the low storage levels in Europe and other factors, according to Andrejs Jakovļevs, Senior Market Analysis Expert at the Energy Department of the Public Utilities Commission (SPRK), as reported to LETA news agency.
He explained that after reaching a three-year low in February 2024, natural gas prices on the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) exchange began to rise slowly. This upward trend continued through February of this year. In February, the average monthly TTF price for the following month peaked at 51.12 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), representing a 92% increase compared to February 2024, when the price was 25.88 euros per MWh.
Several factors have contributed to the rise in natural gas prices over the past year. One of them is increased geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Weather conditions have also played a role, including heatwaves during the summer in Europe and Asia, and colder, windless weather during the winter, which increased demand for natural gas for heating and electricity production.
Another contributing factor was the drop in natural gas storage levels across Europe. During the 2024/2025 winter season, the level of gas reserves decreased significantly. By the end of March 2025, gas storage levels in the European Union (EU) had fallen below 34%, which is 24 percentage points lower than in March 2024, when the level was 58%.
Natural gas prices are also affected by the geopolitical situation in the region. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to fuel geopolitical instability and influence prices. Furthermore, as of January 1st this year, Russian gas flows through Ukraine were halted, further worsening the situation.
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market trends also impact prices. Europe is forced to compete with other regions, particularly Asia, for LNG supplies, which can influence prices and supply security.
Jakovļevs noted that, as of the 25th of March, the TTF futures price for April was approximately 42.75 euros per MWh, which is 15% lower than in February. Similar price levels are expected to continue in the coming months.
According to the SPRK representative, it is important to consider that the current filling level of European natural gas storage facilities is significantly lower than usual for this time of year. Since EU regulations require that storage be at least 90% full by the 1st of November, this could create additional upward pressure on gas prices in the near future.
In addition, as usual, natural gas prices in Europe will continue to depend on supply restrictions or disruptions from producers, weather conditions, levels of renewable energy generation, geopolitical developments, and global competition in the LNG market.
Jakovļevs explained that these factors could lead to significant price fluctuations and affect both market sentiment and the pace of storage refilling ahead of the heating season.