Who much will Latvia be influenced by Donald Trump’s presidency in the US? How strong is the ruling coalition in Latvia and how real are the chances of PM Evika Siliņa’s to influence the work of ministers? Can we expect a reduction of the bloated bureaucratic apparatus and what actually hides behind the deal between airBaltic and Lufthansa? These and other topics were discussed by BNN and co-owner of “Mediju tilts”, politologist Filips Rajevskis.
– Since Donald Trump became president of the United States, there has been more and more talk that the world has changed and many things will no longer be the same. How and will affect Latvia at all?
It will have a very big effect on Latvia. The belief that many held that one can hope for the protection and support of America while at the same time quietly spitting on the interests of the United States will come to an end. This can be directly attributed to Latvia’s votes in the UN General Assembly, as well as its flirting with the Cuban regime, deepening diplomatic relations and naming its ambassador to Cuba. We are well aware that this country is not a friend or ally of the United States, on the contrary. In this situation we could say: you want us to protect and support you, but you yourself are friends with our enemies! The same goes for Israel. Latvia has economic cooperation with Israel, our countries also cooperate in the field of security, but at the same time we declare that we respect the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Latvia’s desire to become a temporary member of the UN Security Council is understandable, but I do not think that this outweighs the risks that such actions pose to the security of our country.
– More and more often the UN is called a “toothless” organisation whose real influence is becoming more and more dubious. Is this really the case?
It’s even worse. It became known not too long ago that some UNRWA employees providing humanitarian assistance to the people of the Gaza Strip employed people involved in kidnapping and hostage-taking. And we give this organisation money! This is not OK.
– The prime minister has spoken quite often about the fact that defence issues are the main priority of our country. Therefore, all the stranger is Silina’s revelation that she known nothing about the bridge across the Daugava, which would have to be built at the newly developed Selija Training Area for the armed forces, including NATO. How could this be considered?
Maybe the e-mail from the Minister of Defence ended up in her spam folder… This is chaos in state administration, this unwillingness to look rationally at our income/cost capabilities, the unwillingness to rationalise work, the difficulties with which everything progresses. All of this causes these problems. Without organising and rationalising our financial capabilities, sometimes we act like e-mails were lost. Because the money is already gone.
We cannot raise taxes, because the economy is already deflated. We have no data available for 2024 yet, but if there was an economic growth, it was most likely microscopic. This means we’ll have to cut costs, which also means lowering expenses of the state administration. As it was mentioned in the public space, this may involve “moving work resources to the private sector”. This means nothing more than a major slashing of the government apparatus. Something like that happened in 2009 and 2010, when Valdis Dombrovskis decided to cut costs and the government apparatus by 30%. The unwillingness to tackle this only serves to deepen problems.
Here is where I want to make a positive comment about the new Director of the State Chancellery Raivis Kronbergs, who is fighting to make sure all civil servants return to working in person. It’s not normal that nearly three years after Covid-19 pandemic we have 30% of civil servants working remotely. On what basis? All private companies have returned to working from the office, but we still have stories about very effective remote work.
– The number of people working in the government apparatus really is nonsensically bloated. Can we really believe there will be a cleaning?
If we don’t do this, then, similarly to the International Monetary Fund once before, someone will come up and say: either you do this, or things will get ugly. We simply cannot do it any different way. We need someone to tell us what to do. The inability to stop loans from spiraling out of control in 2006 and 2007 led to the financial crisis of 2008. Thousands of people went bankrupt. We are well-aware who to “thank” for the feast in the middle of a plague. It’s the same now. We know who is supposed to do the work and what might happen if its not done. Simply put, someone will come from the side again. Doesn’t matter who – the International Monetary Fund, World Bank or the Pentagon. They will say – we don’t care where you’ll get the money, but either you spend 5% of GDP on defence or we’re leaving. And then our security situation will suffer.
– What’s your opinion of the epic with the selection of the new head for the Bank of Latvia? Will Mārtiņš Kazāks be re-approved for this post, or will we see this circus continue for longer?
The epic is coming to an end, but its still proves that officials of this level cannot be approved without a significant majority in the parliament. If the coalition had some 16 votes more, it would have been much easier for them to elect their candidate. In this particular case the media and the public had a great deal of pull. This is why Mārtiņš Kazāks is the sole candidate being pushed for this post. There isn’t a lot of trust in political parties or the ruling coalition. Ratings are low, and so the public word becomes heavier and louder in these or other decisions.
– But before they went back to Mārtiņš Kazāks, the coalition named Vice-President of the Bank of Latvia Santa Purgaile as their candidate. However, she later withdrew her candidacy. It all seems rather odd from the sidelines.
When I heard the coalition had named Purgaile as their candidate, I was 80-90% certain the Union of Greens and Farmers would not support her. Because the criticisms the party had voiced to Mārtiņš Kazāks in the first stage also applied 100% on Santa Purgaile, who was directly responsible for the capital repair of the financial system and the situation in our country’s banks.
– Prime Minister Evika Siliņa has said she plans to review the work of ministers. However, this is not the first such announcement. There was no in-depth evaluation of ministers’ work in the past. What does this indicate? Is the ruling coalition coming apart at the seams?
The general impression is that Evika Siliņa is trying to run the government like Krišjānis Kariņš did in his first government. But there are several very important nuances. During the 13th Saeima, Krišjānis Kariņš was in charge of a government that had five parties and 60 seats. Any one party could be removed from the field and the government would remain operational. No political party wanted to become the one to be kicked out, because this would have meant spending an indefinite amount of time outside the power with no real hope of returning. This is why Kariņš could afford to replace ministers and the like. All other parties were left to do is slow down, because they all understood that if others agree with this and only we vote against, me may be forced out from the ruling coalition. But in the current government the PM has no such power, because there are only three parties. Any one of them that complains about something will leave Siliņa without a job. This is why any story about the PM coming up, choosing people and letting ministers go is completely unjustified. Any minister, including Minister of Transport Kaspars Briškens, who is the least popular, ratings-wise, can walk up to Siliņa and say: you want to remain PM tomorrow? You fire me, I fire you, so calm down!
– So all the talk about kicking one party out and getting a different one to replace it are just speculations.
Yes. Some time ago, the president made it clear there would not be reorganisations when one party is out and another is in without the government changing. Purely technically, there could be some other party that signs the coalition agreement, but what for? Why do we have to mend this coalition if it is better to start over? I believe the only way for this government to keep going is composing a new four-party coalition. Then there will be stability and votes. The ongoing problems with majority vote in the parliament would end as well.
– But if there is a new government, it’s unlikely Evika Siliņa will be put in charge again…
Yes, a new government. But I will dare to predict it will have a different prime minister.
– One of this government’s “hot potatoes” is airBaltic. Some say it’s good there is finally a strategic investor in the form of Lufthansa. Others call it the biggest scam of recent years.
I wouldn’t go as far to call it a scam, because it is unlikely Germany’s Lufthansa wants to participate in any scams with its trademark. I believe they are careful about the deals they participate in. Lufthansa also receives support from the German state and cannot afford any scandals. So I believe there is no scam. However, whether or not it is a beneficial deal – that is a different topic.
– Lufthansa Group’s EUR 14 million investments for minority participation in airBaltic, considering the airline’s needs, is a drop in the ocean…
Yes, but we need to look at what really belongs to airBaltic. There are only expensive debts for the most part.
– Nevertheless, the recent history shows that no matter the mess caused by higher echelons of power, no one really gets punished in the end.
Responsibility is a real problem in Latvia. But I allow that the topic of responsibility could come back at some point. The problem is that there haven’t been any changes in the political elite for a long time.