This autumn, we witnessed an unprecedented situation in Latvia’s political arena when one of the ruling parties – the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) – aligned with the opposition to push for withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. This week, the effort succeeded. After almost 14 hours of debate, which essentially revolved around the same arguments, the Convention was denounced. To find out whether this will affect Latvia’s image on the international stage, what it means for government stability, and whether the President will face intense pressure from both supporters and opponents of the Convention, BNN asked political scientist and co-owner of the company Mediju tilts, Filips Rajevskis.
Will Latvia face any international consequences after withdrawing from the Istanbul Convention? Rajevskis replies: “There will be no consequences. We joined, we withdrew.” He stresses that it is the sovereign right of our Parliament to make decisions it deems appropriate. Regarding the letter from the ambassadors of 15 EU Member States accredited in Latvia, Rajevskis notes that it was very polite – no one wants to cross the red line of interfering in another country’s internal affairs.
Asked why the Istanbul Convention has caused such heated controversy, Rajevskis says the main problem is that the Convention has become highly politicised in Latvia. “It’s no secret that some politicians approached these ambassadors to send this letter to us.”
He also points out that the core issue is being overlooked in the debate. “The protest near the Saeima showed that domestic violence in this country is a very real problem. The most alarming part is that we are not talking at all about how to provide real help to victims of violence or what to do to reduce it. Instead, the debate focuses on the Convention, Europe, and matters that in fact do not solve the problem of violence. If we look at how unusually large the protest against the denouncement of the Convention was, we see that
violence is an issue that society truly feels strongly about, and that is what deserves attention.”
Rajevskis believes that the Istanbul Convention might have been overturned so easily because nothing happened after it was ratified to improve the situation. “We can see that the statistics are terrible. This only shows that joining the Convention was a formal step – it was ratified, put in a drawer, and forgotten. That’s why it was just as easy to take it out and denounce it.”
The most painful point for the ruling coalition is ZZS joining the opposition on this issue. Does this mean the beginning of the end for the coalition? Rajevskis argues: “After what we saw on Wednesday at the Saeima, I do not think The Progressives can remain in the government now. Their voters have clearly stated that staying in the Istanbul Convention is important. If The Progressives say – we will now fight for this from within and there will be no political consequences – then that looks very much like political manoeuvring.”
Responding to BNN’s remark that, according to The Progressives’ co-chair Andris Šuvajevs, New Unity (JV) must now decide whether to form a minority government with ZZS or a minority government with The Progressives, Rajevskis says this is not a matter for the Prime Minister to decide, but for Šuvajevs and The Progressives themselves. “In our politics, politicians very easily shift responsibility to others.
It is the responsibility of their party to decide whether to stay in the government together with ZZS.”
Asked how to interpret the fact that ZZS has changed its stance on the Convention within a year and what impact this may have on their voters, Rajevskis stresses that they most likely did not take this step without consulting their electorate. “I would even say the opposite. Augusts Brigmanis (ZZS) stated that ratification of the Convention was a mistake and they are now correcting that mistake. That is a message they have heard from their voters.”
Another important question is whether President Edgars Rinkēvičs is likely to face pressure both from those who want him to return the law on withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention to Parliament for reconsideration, and from those who want him to promulgate it. Rajevskis believes the President is in a very uncomfortable position. “This issue is highly polarised, and whatever decision the President makes, he will face a large number of critics. There is no doubt about that.”
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