The uproar over the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) joining the opposition’s initiative to vote on Latvia’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention is set to intensify this week. The Progressives are invoking the influence of oligarchs and calling ZZS “gangsters,” while the Prime Minister has summoned the ZZS Minister of Welfare “onto the carpet,” describing the vote as a major breach of the coalition agreement. Why has the question of denouncing the Istanbul Convention sparked such a storm in Latvian politics? BNN asked political scientist and “Mediju tilts” co-owner Filips Rajevskis.
“The stance on the Istanbul Convention is a cornerstone for this coalition; it is also a cornerstone for The Progressives, because it was one of the main promises they made to their voters,” explains Rajevskis.
He reminds that when this coalition was being formed, many already doubted whether ZZS’s support for the Istanbul Convention would be acceptable to its electorate. As the parliamentary elections approach, it has become clear that ZZS voters have not forgotten its ratification and are not particularly pleased that the party once supported it. Therefore, according to Augusts Brigmanis’s words, the party now has to “correct the mistake” — and that is what they are doing.
Asked by BNN about the possible consequences of the Prime Minister’s and The Progressives’ repeated claims in recent days that the coalition agreement has been violated, Rajevskis replies:
“In essence, the Prime Minister declaring that the coalition agreement has been breached means nothing in itself.
The real question is how she and The Progressives will act in this situation. They face a dilemma — whether to think about their voters and the promises they made, or to swallow this ‘toad’ in order to stay in power.”
BNN also finds it no less intriguing to ask why ZZS chose such an open “mutiny on deck.” Rajevskis explains this as ZZS’s need to neutralize criticism from its own electorate about its earlier support for the convention’s ratification. “Ratifying the Istanbul Convention is something political rivals competing in a similar voter niche could attack ZZS for during the election campaign. Therefore, it is advantageous for them to take this issue off the table now.”
Responding to BNN’s remark that The Progressives have also found benefits in the situation — for example, by claiming that ZZS’s actions are revenge for their stance on logging restrictions — the political scientist recalls a statement by the party’s leader Andris Šuvajevs to news agency LETA: “Everything was brought up there — Aivars Lembergs, oligarchs, and whatnot. This is a typical excuse: since everything is bad, we’ll just spit on our promises to voters and cling to our seats and power at any cost.”
Read also: With ZZS support, Saeima refers opposition’s proposal to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention to Committee