Author: Ilona Bērziņa
Just a few months ago, the United List (AS) was one of the opposition forces in the 14th Saeima, associated more with heated parliamentary disputes, the Rail Baltica parliamentary inquiry and criticism of Evika Siliņa’s government. Now the situation is completely different. AS representative Andris Kulbergs heads the Cabinet, while the United List is the clear leader in the polls.
In the latest SKDS poll, conducted from the 4th to the 16th of September among 2,035 Latvian citizens, 14.4% of all respondents said they were ready to vote for the United List. This was the highest result among the parties. Sovereign Power/Young Latvians ranked second with 9.4%, while Latvia First was third with 9.2%.
Compared with August, support for AS has declined slightly, but the party has retained first place. The September poll by Latvijas Fakti paints a similar picture. AS received the support of 15.9% of all respondents, compared with 15.6% in August. Among voters who had already made their choice, support for AS reached 23.8%.
This strongly resembles the position New Unity found itself in before the 14th Saeima election. In the final SKDS poll before that election, New Unity had around 20–23% support among respondents who had named a specific choice. The Factum Interactive poll conducted from the 15th to the 20th of September showed a very similar level of support – around 21–24%.
There is another similarity:
both political alliances largely have their prime ministers to thank for their strong voter support.
In New Unity’s case, it was Krišjānis Kariņš, who took on the task of forming his first government under highly complicated circumstances and successfully steered it through the waves of the pandemic. In the case of AS, it is Andris Kulbergs, who was not afraid to take the helm of the government for a very short period – just four months – and whose sharp rhetoric appears to resonate with voters.
SKDS polls showed a sharp increase in support for the United List following the formation of Kulbergs’ government: from 6.8% in April and May to 9.8% in June. In the pre-election period, this makes it possible to speak of a clearly visible “Kulbergs effect”. Whether this story will end in a similar way to the “Kariņš effect” remains to be seen.
A look at the alliance’s history
Officially, the political alliance consists of the Latvian Green Party, the Latvian Association of Regions and the Liepāja Party.
The alliance was also formed with the participation of non-partisan professionals brought together by Uldis Pīlēns in the United List of Latvia association, which was later renamed Latvia’s Restart and is now headed by Andris Kulbergs.
One of AS’s distinctive features is that it brings together people and organisations with very different political backgrounds: the Green Party, which left ZZS because of its cooperation with Aivars Lembergs’ For Latvia and Ventspils, representatives of regional politics, members of Liepāja’s political elite, people from the business community and non-partisan professionals.
In the 2022 election to the 14th Saeima, AS received 11.01% of the vote and 15 seats, becoming the third most popular electoral list. Its strongest support came from Liepāja and South Kurzeme. The parliamentary group later shrank to 12 MPs.
Uldis Pīlēns, without whom AS would most likely not be what it is today, has been both the alliance’s candidate for prime minister and its candidate for President of Latvia. He now publicly acknowledges that he has relatively little involvement with the United List, while stressing that he has not severed ties with the alliance and believes AS is a political force capable of surviving in the long term.
Pīlēns, however, is not among the candidates on the AS electoral lists.
Electoral list leaders and their track records
AS is running under number seven, and each of the five electoral districts is headed by a politician already well known to the public.
In Riga, the list is headed by Andris Kulbergs, the current Prime Minister and AS candidate for the post after the election. Before entering politics, he was known as a representative of the automotive industry. In the Saeima, he became particularly prominent as chairman of the parliamentary inquiry into the problems surrounding Rail Baltica and later a commission investigating costs at Rīgas siltums.
In Vidzeme, the list is headed by Edvards Smiltēns, chairman of the Latvian Association of Regions, former Speaker of the Saeima, current Justice Minister and one of the two co-chairmen of the AS board.
In Latgale, the number one candidate is Juris Viļums, an MP in the 11th, 12th and 14th Saeima and head of the AS parliamentary group, with longstanding ties to Latgale. He founded Latgolys Saeima and is a member and one of the founders of the Latgolys Studentu centrs association, now known as Volūda. Former President Raimonds Vējonis is number two on the Latgale list.
In Kurzeme, the list is headed by Māris Kučinskis, a former Prime Minister who also served as Interior Minister during the 14th Saeima and is one of AS’s most experienced politicians.
In Zemgale, the number one candidate is Edgars Tavars, chairman of the Latvian Green Party, co-chairman of the AS board and current Minister for Smart Administration and Regional Development.
The second and third positions on the electoral lists also include a number of familiar names, among them Raimonds Bergmanis, Ingmārs Līdaka, Linda Matisone, Inga Priede, Edgars Putra, Aiva Vīksna and doctor Andris Skride.
What does AS promise?
The United List’s election programme is relatively broad, but economic policy, security and public administration clearly dominate.
On security, the alliance promises to expand the State Defence Service, strengthen the capabilities of the National Guard, complete the eastern border defence line, develop drone and counter-drone technologies, establish a network of shelters, and strengthen the police, Border Guard and State Fire and Rescue Service.
In public finances, the goal is to achieve a balanced base budget within four years. AS also promises to establish a Latvian Development Fund to manage state assets and to review the Rail Baltica project, reducing it to the “minimum viable” scope.
On the economy, AS promises a more stable tax system, a 10% micro-enterprise tax rate for individuals, a reduction in personal income tax on capital gains to 17%, retention of the current corporate income tax regime, less bureaucracy and a state-guaranteed housing construction programme in the regions.
In healthcare, the alliance proposes a state health insurance model under which funding would follow the patient even if they chose a certified private healthcare provider. It also proposes a unified appointment system, transforming the National Health Service into a fund and gradually reducing co-payments for children, seniors and patients with chronic illnesses.
For the regions, AS promises a new municipal financing model, road funding from vehicle taxes, development of ports and special economic zones, and equal EU area-based payments for farmers. Families would be offered housing grants and guarantees, while returning emigrants would receive a special tax regime for four years.
On energy, AS wants to review the implementation of the European Green Deal, examine the use of small modular nuclear reactors and simultaneously develop renewable energy. In foreign policy, the programme declares clear support for NATO, the EU and Ukraine.
Four months at the helm of government
Kulbergs formed his government as a short-term “government of action”. Even while the coalition was being formed, its partners stressed that they would focus primarily on tasks that could still be completed during the remaining term of the 14th Saeima.
AS also secured a highly influential set of positions: the prime minister’s office, the Finance Ministry under Māris Kučinskis, the Justice Ministry under Edvards Smiltēns and the Ministry of Smart Administration and Regional Development under Edgars Tavars.
One of the most visible changes in governance was an attempt to divide ministers’ work into specific tasks that could be reviewed on a regular basis.
However, creating a “short list” did not go particularly smoothly, and it eventually evolved into a government action plan containing 150 measures, with another 35 tasks to be implemented if additional funding could be found without negatively affecting the budget.
Of the 150 measures, 37 relate to budget stabilisation and spending efficiency, 34 to security and foreign affairs, and 21 to reducing bureaucracy and improving the efficiency of public administration.
By mid-August, seven of the ministers’ priority tasks had been fully completed, while results had been achieved on 26 priority measures overall. The remaining measures had been launched and were still being implemented.
A government with a short “shelf life”
Kulbergs’ government was formed only a few months before the 15th Saeima election, and during the debate on approving his Cabinet, Kulbergs himself said that the election result would provide the true assessment of the government’s performance. Judging by the polling figures at the end of September, voters appear satisfied so far.
Unlike Krišjānis Kariņš’ second government or Evika Siliņa’s government, the Kulbergs Cabinet has not had several years before the election to build up a record of achievements.
Four months is enough to demonstrate a leadership style, priorities and initial decisions, as well as to appeal to the public with sharp rhetoric and tough criticism, but it is too short a period to reliably assess the long-term results of many reforms.
What could strengthen AS’s pre-election position…
The first factor is the prime minister’s office. Following the formation of the Kulbergs government, the party’s polling numbers rose significantly. His advantage in pre-election communication is that he can speak not only about what AS would like to do, but also about what the government is currently doing.
The second factor is the alliance’s regional infrastructure. AS is not simply a project of Riga-based politicians. The Latvian Association of Regions, the Green Party and the Liepāja Party have municipal politicians across many regions, while a large proportion of the candidates are connected with municipalities, regional institutions, agriculture and local businesses.
The third factor is the concentration of experienced politicians. Kučinskis is a former prime minister, Vējonis a former President and defence minister, Smiltēns a former Speaker of the Saeima, and Bergmanis a former defence minister.
This allows AS to project an image of experienced professionals with considerable experience in government. In other words, here is the new “adult in the room”.
…and what could make things more difficult
AS is not a single ideologically homogeneous party, but rather a combination of three parties and non-partisan figures. The Latvian Green Party, the Latvian Association of Regions, the Liepāja Party and the Latvia’s Restart group of professionals all have different political histories and their own regional interests.
During the current Saeima term, the alliance has also lost several MPs, with its parliamentary group shrinking from its original 15 seats to 12. Putting together a joint electoral list is one thing; keeping a unified political organisation together for four years is another.
Another factor is the short lifespan of the Kulbergs government. As AS itself stresses in its programme, four months is not enough to resolve problems that have accumulated over many years.
The party therefore has the prime minister’s office, but still has relatively few results of its own government work on which to base a longer-term assessment.
Who is the AS voter?
The latest publicly available September polling data do not provide a full socio-demographic breakdown that would make it possible to say precisely that the typical AS voter belongs to a particular age, income or education group. However, previous election results, the party’s structure, its candidates and its programme point to several potential segments of the AS electorate.
The first is regional voters. AS already enjoyed particularly strong support in Liepāja and South Kurzeme in 2022, while the municipal networks of the Latvian Association of Regions and the Green Party provide the alliance with recognisable figures in Vidzeme and Zemgale as well.
The second group consists of centrist or moderately conservative voters who want neither distinctly left-wing nor radically populist politics and who prioritise security, business, efficient public administration and regional interests.
The third group is interested in improving the business and economic environment. Since the days of Pīlēns, AS rhetoric has prominently featured the language of “professionals”, “crisis management”, productivity, investment, reducing bureaucracy and making public administration more efficient. The economic proposals are also among the most detailed sections of the party’s programme for the 15th Saeima election.
A fourth potential group consists of people who previously voted for ZZS, New Unity or regional lists but who, for one reason or another, are now looking for an economically pragmatic and simultaneously Euro-Atlantic alternative.
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