Opinion piece from Ilona Bērziņa
The fate of the government will become clear in late August, promises Latvia’s PM Krišjānis Kariņš. Either the government continues working as the existing coalition, or New Unity (JV) will take over with the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Progressive party (PRO). So far many believe there won’t be any six-legged stool, and the government will have to make do with the same three-legged one, albeit in a different composition.
The PM’s intended changes, despite his own assurance not that long ago that there won’t be any cooperation with ZZS as long as this party maintains even the slightest ties with Aivars Lembergs, are now presented under a different sauce. Yesterday (6th of July) immediately after meeting and exchanging pleasantries with the departing President of Latvia Egils Levits, Kariņš rushed to the government building to meet with ZZS and PRO and discuss with them healthcare-related topics.
As expected, an announcement followed, mentioning that the three parties have similar views about the problems that plague healthcare and achievable goals.
Before then parties announced having shared vision in regards to the education sector, the need to release state companies’ shares on the exchange, etc. This is an unambiguous signal – if marriage is signed among these three political parties, reforms will move forward by leaps and bounds, bringing stability and growth to the whole country.
Kariņš’s government should think about the latter the most, because, according to data from the World Competitiveness Center IMD, Latvia is in a deep hole – in last year’s rating Latvia was in 35th place, this year the country is on the 51st.
We can make excuses about inflation all we like,
but the biggest problem here is the country’s insanely hefty bureaucracy and the government’s silent consent to keep screwing with the business environment.
The economy cannot bloom and productivity cannot grow if businessmen have to constantly deal with artificially created bureaucratic obstacles. Even the world’s best obstacle course runner won’t beat a 100 m distance, let alone a 400 m one, if the barriers are set a couple of centimetres away from each other!
It is clear that after the NATO summit in Vilnius the talks about a possible expansion of the coalition will come back even louder than before. First of all, it will be dictated by the need to commence work on the next year’s budget. Secondly, the time for the two other coalition members – Combined List and National Alliance – to keep sitting calmly in their place has gone for two long. Although politicians tend to have thick skin, it is not impossible to find cracks in their armour. Kariņš can still use a cookie or a whip to feel out any weak points that would allow him to keep his post and be fine with letting ZZS and PRO join the coalition.
Support with 52 votes in the Saeima is good, but Kariņš would definitely feel safer with a couple of more votes.
He already has experience of this kind. During his previous government, five Saeima deputies from KPV.LV left their faction and signed an agreement for cooperation and support of the government. This is why it is not impossible the PM hopes history will repeat itself.
In this case the no-confidence vote initiated by ZZS against the Minister of Culture Didzis Šmits could be interesting. The reason for this dismissal requests is the minister’s inability to limit the uncontrolled price surge for food products may be popular among residents. Krišjānis Kariņš has publicly said he does not support Šmits’ dismissal and that he took this proposal from ZZS with a smile. At the same time, he also said the minister could be removed if he is not given access to official secrets.
Ironically, after six months of waiting for security services, the minister was finally provided with a permit on the next day.
So far it is unknown when the Saeima could decide on the topic of the minister’s dismissal. However, if someone in the ruling coalition does vote in favour, it would mean creating a crack in Kariņš’s carefully constructed government wall.
ZZS does not hide the fact that their goal in talks with Kariņš is entering the coalition. As noted by their leader Armands Krauze, JV and ZZS do not have insurmountable differences in opinion. Everyone has already forgotten about the two parties’ exchange of accusations.
The same ZZS that turned to KNAB with a request to check Kariņš’s possible trade of influence with Progressive party during the government formation process is now prepared to support his new government in exchange for several ministries.
Kariņš, it seems, has forgotten how he himself had categorically denied any possibility of a cooperation with ZZS because of Aivars Lembergs. It no longer seems important to him that ZZS does not distance itself from Lembergs at all. One would recall Lembergs’ own words spoken at the start of the year: “Kariņš is a babbler, not a doer!”
While ZZS is looking through various minister seats in Kariņš’s third government, the Progressive party is refraining from making any signs of public excitement over the subject matter. It would seem this party with its 10 seats in the Saeima (as opposed to New Unity’s 26 and ZZS’ 16 seats) knows they will have to play the “younger brother” role. But this party has received a curtsey of sorts – a couple of days ago the Ministry of Welfare submitted the Istanbul Convention to the Saeima for approval. JV and ZZS politicians support it, it seems.
Judging by all of this, in August Latvia will likely have a new three-legged stool, only with ZZS and PRO instead of NA and AS. So far it seems Kariņš’s dream of an expanded coalition will not come to pass. Because although the PM seems to have forgotten about his own principles, AS and NA have a longer memory.
Also read: Latvian PM to double as country’s minister of foreign affairs