There are just over two weeks left until the municipal elections, and political parties are making sweeping promises. In the battle for voters’ “hearts and minds,” all sorts of campaign tricks are being used. For example, it has been suggested that in the Riga City Council elections there are only two real choices — a coalition led either by Vilnis Ķirsis or Ainārs Šlesers. To understand what lies behind this claim, BNN asked political analyst and “Mediju tilts” co-owner Filips Rajevskis.
In pre-election political battles, segmenting voters is crucial, the analyst explains. “The more black-and-white the field is, the more successful the campaign. You can sell your white or black side more easily. If the field looks grey, it’s harder to stand out — but voters need to see a clear difference. That’s why this claim is, in my view, clearly part of the election fight and a deliberate campaign strategy,” says Rajevskis.
Regardless of which political force wins the most votes, the true winner will be the one that manages to form a coalition. When asked by BNN whether it’s already possible to foresee the outlines of a potential coalition, Rajevskis responds: “If the current ruling parties in the Riga City Council get a majority, it’s logical they will continue the existing coalition. The question is — can they form a coalition without Ainārs Šlesers, or not?”
According to Rajevskis, it is practically impossible for a coalition to form that includes Ainārs Šlesers, Aleksejs Rosļikovs, Harmony, and other controversial political forces. “I don’t believe Šlesers would want to lead such a coalition. He’s thinking long-term. It would actually benefit him if the Latvian-leaning parties couldn’t form a coalition on their own — then he becomes indispensable. That’s when the game would really begin for him.”
Asked whether this means that in such a scenario the “golden card” would lie with the Honor to Serve Riga/Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) list, Rajevskis replies affirmatively. “If they get elected, their votes will carry significant weight in forming the next coalition.”
Commenting on New Unity and The Progressives’ pledge not to cooperate with Šlesers in the new Riga City Council, the political analyst expresses scepticism, noting that in Latvia, parties have broken similar signed commitments so many times that he simply doesn’t believe them. “Before elections they say ‘never again, no way,’ but after elections all sorts of stories emerge like, ‘there was no other way…’ I wouldn’t put much stock in that paper,” Rajevskis concludes.