On the previous night, at least 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, according to preliminary estimates. Was it an accident, a deliberate escalation, or an attempt by the aggressor state to “test” how far it can go in provoking a NATO country? BNN asked former Defence Minister and Director of the think tank Northern Europe Policy Centre, Dr. Artis Pabriks.
“We cannot answer this question 100% straight away, but I would say that when dealing with Russia, we must always assume the worst-case scenario. In my view, this means Russia is continuing its escalation phase because it sees there is no adequate response — it is always delayed and weak. Therefore, it is very possible that this drone incursion into Polish airspace was meant to see how our allies would react. In that case, it is a real escalation,” said Pabriks.
The former minister also pointed out that we are not responding to Russian aggression as we should. According to him, Western countries should seize Russia’s frozen assets, which in Europe alone amount to more than 200 billion euros. He added that it is high time at least part of Ukraine be covered by air defense: “It is clear that such drone flights into our territories will only increase, so NATO defense and other measures must be extended to Ukrainian territory, to partly protect ourselves as well.” Pabriks also stressed the need to finally give up Russian fuel, asking: “How long are we going to keep buying it? How long will this continue in Europe and elsewhere? There are a number of steps that should be taken. But Russia sees that the attitude is ‘soft’ and keeps pushing forward — that’s all.”
When asked by BNN about Prime Minister Evika Siliņa’s (New Unity) recent statement that, three and a half years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Latvia still does not have “full protection,” Pabriks replied: “What do we mean by full protection? If we’re talking about counter-drone defense, then
it is clear that no country — not even Ukraine — can provide 100% interception.
But Ukraine is dealing with hundreds of drones, while any European country struggles with even ten or twenty.”
Pabriks acknowledged that Poland intercepted most of the drones, “but that may be all they can do in terms of capacity.” As for Latvia, he noted one positive aspect — the country’s small size: “We can defend a smaller territory more effectively.” Still, he admitted that, otherwise, the problems are common across the West.
Asked what should be done to prevent such situations in the future, Pabriks again emphasized that Western countries must take aid to Ukraine far more seriously. “This has not happened. It wasn’t done properly during Joe Biden’s presidency, and now, with the new U.S. president, we are in fact seeing concessions to Russia, while Europe issues strong verbal statements — and that’s where it ends. The West doesn’t feel sufficiently threatened.”
According to Pabriks, the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland are doing much more, “but even here, if we look at Latvia’s defense system, we could achieve significantly more. I always ask: if we knew that, say, an invasion of Latvia was coming in half a year or a year, would we act the way we are acting now? With all the bureaucratic requirements, the support for our producers, drone training… Of course not! We would act completely differently. The same applies to all European countries — we are not taking defense and security seriously, nor aid to Ukraine.
Recently, there have even been tendencies to talk about making concessions to the Russians — that Ukraine should give up its territory, and only then discussions and negotiations can take place. All of this is escalatory, and the Russians are exploiting it. Returning to the drone flights into Polish airspace, I think this was partly a test — to see what the West can and wants to do. Until now, not a single drone had even been shot down! In principle, this is the first time the Poles, with allied support, have destroyed them.”
Read also: “Full Protection Is Not Yet in Place” – Siliņa on Latvia After Drone Incursion into Poland