The latest SKDS poll, commissioned by Latvian Television, shows that Ainārs Šlesers’ party “Latvija pirmajā vietā” (Latvia First) has, for the first time, taken the lead on the national level, followed by the National Alliance and New Unity, with the Union of Greens and Farmers in fourth place. BNN asked political scientist and co-owner of the company “Mediju tilts,” Filips Rajevskis, what these results indicate.
Rajevskis says that although these poll results are not surprising, they raise concerns about the future. All parties are seeing declining ratings, and the ones leading the rankings are not those whose support is increasing, but those whose ratings are not dropping. This is an unhealthy signal. The poll shows that people don’t really like anything in the current political landscape, and the winner is simply the one towards whom voters feel the most neutral. Those who don’t lose, rather than those who gain by offering something new, come out ahead.
As another serious issue, he points to the high number of undecided voters. According to SKDS, 33.1% don’t know who to vote for, and 14.5% said they will not participate in the elections. This means nearly half of the population is in a state of confusion. This group might simply not vote at all, which could cause problems with the legitimacy of the election. Alternatively, their votes may be impulsive, driven by last-minute emotions. This could lead to results similar to the previous Saeima elections, where several marginal, new parties won many seats, and three of the biggest winners are no longer part of the political landscape.
Asked why this situation is dangerous, Rajevskis says it’s like froth washing ashore—something that quickly disappears. The result is four years that, in the best-case scenario, can be considered lost years, and in the worst case, could seriously harm Latvia’s development in politics, the economy, and other areas.
Relatively strong poll numbers are also seen for pro-Russian parties “Stabilitātei!” (4.1%) and “Saskaņa” (3%). Asked to comment on this, Rajevskis explains that Russian-speaking voters are now experiencing what Latvian-speaking voters have dealt with for years—having a choice. The Russian-speaking electorate can now choose what they really want: those leaning more pro-Russian vote for “Stabilitātei!”, while the more moderate opt for “Saskaņa”. It’s no longer like before, when everything was concentrated in one party.
Asked whether it would be possible to form a functioning government coalition if Saeima elections were held tomorrow, Rajevskis says that if all the forces reflected in the SKDS poll make it into parliament and such a fragmented spectrum emerges, there will be a wide range of potential combinations. It’s an unpredictable situation due to the broad ideological diversity on both sides.