Linas Jegelevičius
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shifted his rhetoric, moving from discussions of a “victory plan” to unveiling a comprehensive ten-point internal “Resilience Plan.” This announcement comes amidst concerns among Ukraine’s allies about the nation’s struggles in its ongoing conflict with Russia. To explore the reasons behind these challenges, BNN consulted various Lithuanian analysts.
Darius Antanaitis, a Lithuanian defence expert and retired major of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, attributes Ukraine’s difficulties to insufficient preparation before the war.
“The primary reason for Ukraine’s setbacks on the frontlines is its lack of preparation before the war,” Antanaitis explained to BNN.
“Ukraine failed to fully integrate with NATO and the EU and invested too little in its defence and military capabilities. Russia exploited these vulnerabilities and Ukraine’s position in a geopolitical ‘grey zone’, he emphasized.
Antanaitis noted that while he cannot predict Ukraine’s future, he referenced Zelenskyy’s hints that Ukraine might accept the loss of some occupied territories in exchange for NATO membership for the remaining regions.
“This situation signals that the era of large-scale wars in Ukraine is far from over. In fact, it could only be the beginning of greater challenges – new wars. Russia poses a serious regional security issue that not everyone recognizes,” Antanaitis added.
Audrius Butkevičius, a signatory of the Act of the Re-Establishment of the State of Lithuania and the country’s first Minister of Defense (1991–1993), disagrees with the notion that Ukraine is losing.
“Politically, even with territorial losses, Ukraine is closer than ever to achieving its ultimate goals of EU and NATO membership. Moreover, the nation has never been more united,” Butkevičius told BNN.
While acknowledging Ukraine’s recent military setbacks, particularly in the Donbas region, he believes these are partly due to changes in military leadership.
In February, Zelenskyy replaced Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the country’s military commander-in-chief, with General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi, considered closer to Zelenskyy, took over amid tensions between the president and Zaluzhnyi.
“The Zaluzhnyi team was more effective and coordinated. The new leadership is still finding its rhythm, but improvements are visible,” Butkevičius remarked.
Zelenskyy stated that further details of the Resilience Plan will be unveiled shortly, even as concerns grow about waning U.S. support for Ukraine.
President-elect Donald Trump commented in an interview on the 14th of November on the conflict: “We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s gotta stop.”
Analysts point out that delays in Western military aid, particularly from the United States, have hindered Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defences.
Ukraine’s defence manufacturing capabilities remain limited, forcing reliance on foreign partnerships. For example, Ukraine recently partnered with the Czech company CSG to produce 155mm artillery shells, with production slated to begin in 2025.
Ukraine faces acute manpower issues, compounded by significant desertions. Reports estimate over 100 000 soldiers have been charged with desertion, with 200 000 more going AWOL since the war began.
The prolonged war has severely impacted Ukraine’s economy, increasing reliance on foreign aid.
Russian forces have made significant gains, notably in the Donbas region, capturing strategic locations and destabilizing Ukraine’s defensive lines.
Lithuania has been a steadfast ally of Ukraine, providing over one billion euros in military aid as of December 2024. This support includes M113 armoured personnel carriers, howitzers, and two NASAMS air defence systems.
Despite its commitment, Lithuania’s retired General Valdas Tutkus warns that many in the West underestimate the challenges Ukraine faces.
“Ukraine cannot reclaim the occupied territories alone. Russia, too, is stretched thin, but a regrouping is underway,” Tutkus emphasized to BNN.
He added that the situation might depend on Donald Trump’s presidency and his potential collaboration with Hungarian President Viktor Orban who he favours, which could surprise European leaders.
The European Union has provided substantial military support to Ukraine, allocating 11.1 billion euros through the European Peace Facility (EPF) since 2022.
Collectively, the EU and its Member States have committed 45.5 billion euros in military aid, emphasizing their solidarity with Ukraine.