Ilona Bērziņa, BNN
June has proved to be significant for both Kariņš’ governments. Two years ago, after getting the KPV LV out of the coalition, “old” Kariņš was glad: “Our coalition is now more compact”. Now New Unity is as much as happy to support talks about the expansion of the coalition with the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Progressive Party.
Not so long ago Unity almost swore by the bible that it’ll avoid cooperation with the ZZS until the party cut ties with Aivars Lembergs, who is accused of serious crimes and sanctioned by the US.
It is unlikely that Unity could pull the same trick with the expansion of the coalition as successfully as it was with cutting the coalition. First of all, current negotiating partners are far more insidious and with huge experience in political intrigues. Secondly – society is more interested in the processes this time.
The real game remains hidden
Ilga Kreituse, professor of Rīga Stradins University and political scientist, pointed out that the situation is very complicated and much harder to deal with because of the internal conflicts and since the question about Lembergs is still open. She also reminded that there are questions that remain under the covers, like the question about the mayor of Rīga Mārtiņš Staķis, the chair of Saeima’s leader, and also about the role of the Foreign Minister. Politologist supposes that
the role of this position is kind of overrated since we have to work in line with the US and European Union anyway.
Regarding the expansion of the coalition, Kreituse said: “Kariņš ir acting like a village fool. It is hard to describe it any other way, if your partner says “no”, and you keep on pushing “we will expand”. It looks pretty strange. I think that there is a bigger game underneath, to buy the time and it would be possible to adjust sidelines, who is satisfied with what and for what price the votes for Rinkēvičs came.”
Politilogist Filips Rajevskis, asked if Kariņš could just announce that new coalition partners will join, says, that it is not possible: “First of all, ZZS won’t be just an addition to the ruling coalition, they want a new policy. Secondly, two of the three partners said that they are not ready for coalition changes. Therefore, I do not see technically any other option than the resignation of the government – or the fact that nothing changes in the government for the time being and we are waiting for the moment when disagreements will arise again between the government parties.”
Red lines are gone, what was once said – forgotten
After the support of ZZS to Edgars Rinkēvičs in the presidential elections, the red lines drawn by the Unity have faded like the morning dew in the heat. Both Unity, ZZS and Aivars Lembergs have forgotten their own rhetoric just before the 14th Saeima elections, as well as during the formation of the second government of Krišjānis Kariņš.
Not so long ago, Kariņš said that he did not see how he could cooperate with ZZS.
Neither ZZS nor Aivars Lembergs spared Unity or Kariņš in their public statements. At the end of last year, in an interview with the city newspaper Ventas Balss, Lembergs stated that “Kariņš and Levits have led Latvia into an extremely deep crisis” and “if the president nominates Kariņš, then ZZS will not support him and no negotiations, forming or not forming a coalition with Lembergs, will take place without Lembergs.”
Now, all these mutual insults have been successfully forgotten, and Kariņš says that he always wanted a wider coalition, but never talked about it.
Fee for service – indulgence for Lembergs?
It would be naive to think that the architecture of the expansion of the government could be done without Lembergs. Ilga Kreituse reminds that ZZS is a combination of two parties – Latvian Farmers’ Union and For Latvia and Venstpils (Latvijai un Ventpilij). [It also includes the Social Democratic Workers’ Party of Latvia – BNN.]
“Without the two votes of Lemberg’s party, there would be no president (E. Rinkēvičs was elected with 52 votes – I.Bērziņa), because the two MP who voted “for” are not farmers, but representatives of For Latvia and Venstpils.”Without Lembergs and his favor, this move could not have happened,” says the political scientist.
Asked what the interest of the former mayor of Ventspils might be in the expansion of the coalition, Kreituse says that the question of Lembergs’ fate could be played out.
When asked whether the charge for support from For Latvia and Ventspils could be an indulgence for Lembergs, Juris Juriss, the chief prosecutor of the so-called Lemberg case, admits that, theoretically, everything can be possible.
In its announcement to the media about support for the start of negotiations on a possible expansion of the coalition, Unity didn’t forget to pat itself on the shoulder and point out the unchanging values of the party, including the rule of law, security, and the Euro-Atlantic course.
Unity pretends not to see the fact that the ZZS cooperation agreement with For Latvia and Ventspils has been signed by Aivars Lembergs.
This confirms that no isolation from Lembergs is possible. Although,
HE PROBABLY won’t sit AT THE SAME TABLE WITH KARIŅŠ, THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BACKSTAGE WON’T GO AWAY.
This time, Unity is also trying to bend the strategy it used successfully “against Pīlēns” when it was announced that only persons who were elected to the Saeima or were on the electoral lists can participate in the government formation negotiations. In the case of Uldis Pīlēns, this meant pushing aside a strong political rival. In the case of Lembergs, it is a way to cover up the self-declared and now violated principles.
Read also: BNN ASKS | Dzintars: New Unity drew the brightest “red lines”, but now tries to erase them