Linas Jegelevičius for the BNN
A war is disastrous and horrible in all regards, but, well, it has jacked up the slipping ratings of the Liberal-Conservative Lithuanian government and the parliament, Seimas. Notably, the latter has always had dismal support of Lithuanian voters.
Favourability of the government jerked from 15 percent in February to 22.8 percent in early March, says a poll by Vilmorus, a pollster. 38.9 percent said they do not trust the government, down from 47.8 percent in February.
«Do not get me wrong: a war is the least thing anyone could wish for, but after it started in Ukraine, the eyes of the Lithuanian Prime Minister (Ingrida Šimonytė) and the Foreign Minister (Gabrielius Landsbergis) started to shine gleefully. This is not only my observation,» Dainius Kepenis, an opposition member of the Lithuanian parliament,» told BNN.
«If not for the war, the lowly support of the government would have slipped into single digits by now. Sadly, using the war as a shield, it is sweeping all the mistakes it has made under the rug,» Kepenis says.
Since the inception of the war, Lithuanian voters’ affinity with the Seimas grew from 8.6 percent in February to 13.1 percent in early March. Astonishingly, every second citizen still mistrust the national legislature. A whopping 58.9 percent mistrusted it in February.
Kęstutis Girnius, associate professor of Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, says that many people from a different political spectrum have rallied behind the government amid war in Ukraine.
«Even politicians who usually excoriate government shun criticism now – for the sake of unity and the strong public sentiment for Ukraine,» he told BNN.
Vladas Gaidys, the head of Vilmorus, says that although support for both the government and the parliament has grown in the wake of the war in Ukraine, yet it is nowhere to being impressive.
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Speaking of the Vilmorus poll, with the commencement of war, the Lithuanian Armed Forces have seen a solid leap of over 5 percent in support over the last month – 64.8 percent trusted the Army and 10.5 percent mistrusted in March.
Yet it was the Border Guard Service among the most trusted services in the country that saw the biggest rise, slightly over 10 percent, in favourability over month.
«When the events near our border with Belarus started, the service started to be noticed and evaluated in a positive sense,» said Gaidys, sociologist by profession.
But in general, and perhaps traditionally, Lithuanian residents trust firefighters the most – nine of every ten surveyed respondents said the service seems to them the most credible. Only a mere 2.1 percent mistrust the firefighters.
Citing invasion of Ukraine, the Lithuanian parliament has extended the state of emergency in the country until April 21.
«We see that even politicians who would swing at the government on every occasion, keep mum now not to irritate the public. For example, Saulius Skvernelis (Prime Minister in the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens (LFGU)-led government in 2016-2020), voted against the state of emergency, but, unlikely to him, he chose not to comment widely his decision,» Girnius noted.
During the period of the state of emergency, Lithuania is stepping up protection of its borders and strategic facilities.
The state of emergency also allows the government to block all media outlets controlled by Russia and Belarus. The decision also provides for a possibility to restrict the activities of Lithuanian media outlets.
Several Lithuanian media outlets, even the website of the weekly Respublika, known for its national stance and which has been in business since the early 1990s, have been taken down.
Opposition MPs, and Kepenis, have called the measures excessive, unreasonable and too restrictive on the constitutional rights of the country’s citizens. Under the state of emergency, there is also a ban on assemblies aimed at supporting, in any form or scope, the actions of the Russian Federation and/or the Republic of Belarus in Ukraine.
Ramūnas Karbaukis, chairman of the opposition LFGU, was one of few high-profile Lithuanian politicians to hit out at the government after the war broke out.
«It is a shame that the government can no longer show not only to our citizens, but also to the incoming Ukrainians that they know how to deal with crisis situations…When more and more people come to Lithuania from war-torn Ukraine, there is a lack of centralised coordination of our state, and many things have been transferred to the shoulders of municipalities and NGOs. The same thing has happened and is still going on because of the COVID-19 pandemic. So nothing new. In both cases, however, ordinary people become hostages to incapacity,» Karbauskis has said.
With the harsh words he is walking on a tight rope, risking exasperating public which has come behind the government so far. But the situation – also regarding support for the government and the Seimas – can be very different in two years from now, with a new parliamentary election scheduled in autumn of 2024.
«It remains to be seen how the war goes on. Let’s imagine it will have not been over yet by the election time. I am afraid that, in the case, Lithuania, like many other countries, could be facing difficult aftermaths to the economies, meaning that the ruling parties could be seeing a bleak outlook,» Girnius said.
Agreeing, Kepenis, the MP, predicted that the Lithuanian economy will start feeling the impact of the severance of trade ties with Russia and Belarus as soon as the autumn.
«It would make sense to buy canned food now and put it in storage. My wife is taking care of that,» the Lithuanian legislator quipped before clarifying: «I am serious about it.»
Already with Ukraine at war, Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda hit at the government for «sluggishness» in addressing rising inflation. Moreover, on Thursday, March 31, he warned that Lithuania may face economic stagnation, which would be a major blow to the fast-growing economy.
«We could face economic stagnation, if not a recession,» he said, adding that this «would deal a significant blow to Lithuania, which is used to a fairly fast economic growth».
The economic situation is changing rapidly and it will depend on how the war in Ukraine unfolds, among other factors, according to Nausėda.
BNN Analyses | War in Ukraine ups Lithuanian Cabinet‘s ratings, but economic fallout can be dire
