Linas Jegelevičius
If Wagner forces, albeit weakened, are deployed in Belarus, just across the border from Lithuania, Vilnius needs to get ready as soon as possible for possible hybrid actions-based provocation of the mercenary group, both Lithuanian establishment and defence experts agree.
“The stationing of the forces, professional and experienced, in Belarus would pose a grave threat to Lithuania. And we certainly need to see the larger picture. if everything goes to Putin’s and Lukashenko’s plans, in the beginning of July, tactical nuclear weapons will be stationed in Belarus. Then you have the Wagner mercenaries there. Note all of that occurs right before the NATO summit in Vilnius (it will be held during the 11th to 12th of July – L. J). No one can rule out that the two leaders may have made the arrangement to keep us in jittery and more,” Valdas Tutkus, general and former Chief of Defence of Lithuania, told BNN.
Yet, he adds, for now,
it is unclear what mission of Wagner paramilitary in Belarus will be
if it will end up being deployed there.
After Wagner’s aborted march to Moscow last Saturday, the Kremlin announced that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would be exiled to Belarus. However, its deployment there has not been confirmed yet.
On Monday, several Belarusian opposition channels reported that several military bases will be built in Belarus to accommodate the Wagner mercenaries. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian Armed Forces and that their presence in the country was “nothing to fear”.
Spooked by Wagner, some Lithuanian PMs have called on deploying additional NATO forces in Lithuania. President Gitanas Nausėda said after the State Defence Council’s meeting last Sunday that the arrival of
Prigozhin in Belarus would mean that the security of NATO’s eastern borders would have to be further strengthened.
However, V. Tutkus does not believe it is necessary.
“The NATO forces we have here are sufficient, mobile and ready to react in time to any provocation. And, no doubt, our own military is prepared to react to any emergency stemming from Wagner. In any case, Lithuania needs to get ready and bolster its border security and monitor the group’s movements,” general emphasised to BNN.
Wagner mutiny was a big slap in the face of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, V. Tutkus says, underscoring that the Russian leader managed to get rid of the well-prepared paramilitary group without shedding a single drop of blood.
“If he had used Russian troops to quelch the rebellion, a civil war could have been stoked.
But, worse for us, we may end up having Wagner forces our own threshold,” general said.
Meanwhile, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence (CNSD), says that having some of the most aggressive Wagner strikers and war criminals settled in Belarus is a threat to the national security of Lithuania and the other states in the region.
“Prigozhin’s hitmen, who may end up in Belarus, will act as a non-state actor, as an organization that is not formally subordinate to any state and under which the criminal goals of some of the states can be hidden. Lithuania will not give in and will hold Minsk responsible for all its actions both from and beyond its territory,” the CNSD chief told BNN.
According to him, there are currently no indications that Wagner is trying or has an interest in organising any attacks against Lithuania.
“However, both
NATO and we must adapt and be ready to quickly counter the threat from this type of organisation.
For this, it is necessary to strengthen the rapid reaction forces, the combat power of the Lithuanian army, intelligence, ensure the fastest/early arrival of the allies in Lithuania and have as many allied forces as possible in Lithuania. For such organizations, it is not so much deterrence that is important, but an immediate and powerful response,” the Committee head believes.
Meanwhile, Kęstutis Budrys, an adviser to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, said this week that they (Wagner forces) are not yet in Belarus, but if it were to happen, Lithuania will certainly be ready.
According to him, Prigozhin’s forces are dangerous because they can operate in the “grey zone” through sabotage and infiltration operations – something Wagner has repeatedly demonstrated in Africa, Syria and the United States.
“This kind of uncontrollable element is a risk factor and we will have to really adapt – clearly, it is not up to the regime of [Belarusian leader Alexander] Lukashenko to control it,” the official told Žinių radijas.
Private mercenaries, he said, are able to act in hybrid ways,
while the government they serve can deny responsibility.
However, he stressed, the Belarusian government will be held accountable for whatever action Wagner mercenaries engage in.
According to Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus has no immediate impact on the security situation in Lithuania, but it will definitely change if Wagner’s troops come to the neighbouring country.
“The greatest danger after this weekend comes from the unpredictability factor,” he said. “The possible arrival of Prigozhin, one person, in Belarus, does not affect our security situation, but the arrival of his army would unequivocally change it.”
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who left for an unscheduled visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, said he and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky concur that
NATO must take advantage of the internal turmoil in Russia
following the Wagner revolt to bring Ukraine closer to the alliance.
This week, Lithuania’s State Security Department (VSD) has said that it is monitoring and assessing potential developments in the security situation in the region related to the possible relocation of Prigozhin and Wagner mercenaries to neighbouring Belarus.
Interestingly, VSD said on Wednesday that documents found during searches at the Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg show that the private military group was linked to an information attack against Lithuania last year.