BNN ANALYSES | One public health malady still around, other bugaboo on the way?

Linas Jegelevičius for the BNN
The coronavirus has just been kicked out – for the summer at least, but other creep, monkeypox, is already swinging at us. In Lithuania, too.
Most Lithuanians were caught off guard by the news about a new contagious virus, monkeypox, menacing to wreak a havoc in lives again.
«What unfortunate times – the COVID pandemic, ensued by unseen restrictions, then the war (in Ukraine) and now a new scourge is emerging. Just horrible,» Vera Alejūnienė, an octogenarian resident of Klaipeda, Lithuania’s third-largest city, told BNN.
Feeling «exhaustion» from bad news she has nearly stopped watching TV.
«I am still tuned to radio, but to a channel that mostly plays old music and reads news only at certain hours,» she added.
The World Health Organisation describes monkeypox as a viral zoonosis virus transmitted to humans from animals with symptoms very similar to those seen in the past in smallpox patients, although it is clinically less severe.
«Lithuania is closely monitoring the situation how monkeypox spreads in Europe, but there is no direct threat yet,» Aurimas Pečkauskas, Lithuania’s deputy health minister, assured Lithuanian media this week.
Monkeypox virus is transmitted from one person to another by close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets and contaminated materials such as bedding. The incubation period of monkeypox is usually from 6 to 13 days but can range from 5 to 21 days, says the World Health Organisation.
The deputy minister says Lithuania and the public health authorities are preparing for a possible outbreak of the contagious virus, monitoring the situation in the countries where it has been already spreading, and assessing the situation daily.
«At the moment, we are seeing really small numbers of the disease, which is very well known to the world’s epidemiologists and does not seem to pose the same threat as the former pandemic,» believes the deputy minister.
 According to him, the European Commission has already activated a mechanism dubbed HERA,  which also operated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
«European specialists look at vaccination in the same way as they did during the coronavirus pandemic. Specifically, what percentage of immunisations are available in the countries, what are the options for purchasing the vaccine. We are also thinking about the numbers of vaccines that could be necessary, if a decision made to purchase those vaccines is made,» said Pečkauskas.
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However, he got some good news to those jabbed against pox until 1980.
«The shots are believed to be still able to provide immunity,» he was quoted by Lithuanian media.
According to the World Health Organization, as of May 24, there are 92 laboratory-confirmed and 28 suspected cases of smallpox in 12 countries in the world where smallpox is not endemic.
As of May 25, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have confirmed in eight European countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands.
This is the first time that chains of infection have been reported in Europe without epidemiological links to West or Central Africa, where the disease is endemic. No deaths have been reported from the disease, however.
Saulius Čaplinskas, head of the Lithuanian Centre for Communicable Diseases and AIDS (ULAC), told BNN that monkey smallpox is the most dangerous for those with weak immunity, and the mortality rate from the disease can reach up to 3 percent.
«Two variants of the virus have so far spread in Africa. One of them kills about 10 percent of the continent, the other (kills) up to 1 percent of those infected. The variant that is now spreading in Europe is lower in mortality. Deaths appear to be up to 3 percent. But it should be emphasised that if we talk about healthy, young people, the disease will usually be milder and like flu. The disease, the disease will be more dangerous for people with weaker immune systems, either due to age or underlying health conditions,» he said.
Monkeypox presents with fever, fatigue, headache, and muscle aches. The rash develops within three days of the onset of symptoms.
Scientists discern two clades of monkeypox virus: the West African clade and the Congo Basin (Central African) clade. The first human case was identified in a child in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1970.
The Lithuanian public health expert however insists that the contagion of this disease is much lower than, for example, COVID-19.
Rolanda Lingienė, director of the Vilnius Department of the National Centre of Public Health, resorted to social media to alarm everyone about monkeypox.
 «Why shouldn’t I hurry to calm down on monkeypox? Although smallpox has long been recorded by scientists outside the 11 African countries where the first cases of the disease were reported, recent data suggest otherwise. The outbreak has already invaded several European countries, as well as the United States, Australia, Canada and Israel. So it’s only a matter of time before we have the first case, because the circle around us is shrinking,» she said in her Facebook post.
«It is very important at this time not to forget hand hygiene,» the public health official emphasised.
When it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has said Lithuania was among the European Union member states with the largest excess mortality. For example, the number of excess deaths in Lithuania was 32 percent last September, 12 percent last August, and 10 percent last July.
According to Čaplinskas, excess mortality should be associated with two causes: COVID-19 and the resulting deterioration in health care services.
 According to him, several overlapping factors made Lithuania stand out.
«I’ve lived through the Second World War, the COVID did not kill, so hopefully monkeypox will not mow me down neither,» grins Alejūnienė.