Linas Jegelevičius for the BNN
As Finland‘s and Sweden‘s NATO memberships seem near despite Turkey’s objections, Lithuania is rejoicing along with its Baltic neighbours at the new situation, which, security-wise, means a whole new thing – not just Russia’s deterrence, but real defence, Lithuania says.
However, analysts warn that the alliance’s enlargement will likely trigger new tensions at the Baltic Sea and beyond.
Juozas Olekas, Lithuania’s former defence minister, now euro-parliamentarian, pointed out to BNN.lv bluntly: «No doubt that Sweden’s and Finland’s joining of NATO will significantly bolster our security – we’ve been closely cooperating with Nordic countries on defence issues. But their memberships will likely increase tensions – Russia will not be putting up with that easily,» he emphasised.
Pressed if the new memberships will guarantee 100 percent security of Lithuania, and the Baltics, too, the former defence minister responded: «There is never perhaps such a thing: 100 percent security. There is always a remote likelihood that a hostile missile can slip through even a very tight and dense defence shield.»
Lithuania’s defence ministry told BNN.lv that Finland‘s and Sweden‘s NATO membership would «significantly strengthen» NATO‘s deterrence and defence, particularly in the Northern – Eastern part of the Alliance and it would significantly contribute to the Baltic Sea security.
«It would strengthen NATO naval dimension and increase Allied naval presence in the Baltic Sea thereby enhancing deterrence and defence in the entire region,» the ministry emphasised.
It says the Balts and Nordic states have developed close and enduring cooperation in many areas, including security and defence.
«Our cooperation is exceptionally close, the NATO membership would elevate it to another level of cooperation,» it underlined.
«Finland and Sweden‘s accession to NATO will allow to enhance our situational awareness on Russia‘s military posture and military activities in the region. As NATO members, Baltic and Nordic states would even more closely participate in NATO common activities such as exercises and coordinate national activities to deter Russia,» it added.
A Lithuanian defence expert underscored that Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO memberships would mean a «great deal» to the security of Baltic states.
«Because it would enhance the spectre of capabilities, area of operations and not just friendly, but firmly allied nations bound by the security arrangements, that are widely known by the consequences of Article 5. It would also affect certain capabilities and operational planning by Russia if they had any hostile intentions towards Baltic States,» he said.
In the wake of war in Ukraine, Lithuania raised defence spending to 2.52 percent of GDP. The current budget allocates just over 1.2 billion euros, or 2.05 percent of GDP, to the country’s defence.
Yet the Baltic’s impenetrability would remain in question even with a massive defence reinforcement.
«Russia has military advantage in the region, in Kaliningrad it hosts huge offensive capabilities including dual-capable missile systems, battle tanks, artillery systems. Russia‘s war against Ukraine showed that Russia can take military actions very quickly in the region if decides so,» the Lithuanian defence ministry emphasised.
In its words, NATO should have more credible forward deployed forces in the region underpinned by quick and viable reinforcement.
«Air defence is a particular importance. We invest in air defence, however, it won‘t be sufficient to protect national and Allied forces in the conflict. We expect that Air Policing to be transitioned to air defence,» the ministry pointed out.
Speaking of the region’s defence shortcomings, the afore-mentioned defence expert mentioned these: lack of operational space to fight in, relatively small capabilities in particular of armoured, air, antiship, missile defence capabilities, the Suwalki gap (but also other, lesser known areas, like Latgala or Curonian spit, that leads to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda).
«It’s hard to speculate whether those countries are well defended from missile attacks, since NATO reinforcements in that area in terms of scope, size and timing are the unknowns for potential aggressor and could mean a significant impact,» he said.
In his words, submarines would «probably» be of lesser concern as the Russian federation lacks those in the shallow Baltic Sea and NATO has enough capabilities to hunt them down if need be.
Read also: Baltics voice strong support to Finnish, Swedish NATO bid
However, an unexpected hurdle to Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO memberships has come from Turkey, which accused the two of harbouring members of Kurdish militant groups it considers terrorist organisations, and also objects to their decisions in 2019 to ban arms exports to Ankara over Turkey’s military operations in Syria.
The enlargement of NATO must be approved by all 30 members and then ratified by their parliaments, which could take up to a year.
The alliance has said it wants to move as fast as possible given the potential Russian threat to Finland and Sweden.
The two countries’ applications represent a radical redrawing of Europe’s security landscape in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, if successful, would represent the most significant expansion of NATO in decades, doubling the alliance’s border with Russia.
NATO says it is confident that it can overcome objections by Turkey and quickly admit Finland and Sweden.
On May 17, representatives of the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence presented the defence and modernization plans of Lithuania to the NATO Defence Planning Committee and were praised more than ever throughout the history of NATO membership and partnership.
NATO defence planners gave a high assessment to Lithuania’s progress on defence spending, infrastructure development, new procurement and support to Ukraine. NATO highlighted Lithuania’s plans to increase the manpower of the military and its reserve and improve provision for service members. The assessment personnel also pointed out Lithuania’s efforts in implementation of the total defence concept and improvement of public resilience.
According to Defence Policy Director Vaidotas Urbelis who led the MoD delegation in Brussels, NATO defence planning has become more realistic in the recent years and defence planners are referring closely to the developments in the region and the threat of Russia.
BNN ANALYSES | NATO Nordic expansion to bolster Lithuania’s security, but new tensions with Russia inevitable
