Linas Jegelevičius
Belarus, Lithuania’s next-door neighbor, has confirmed it will host Russian tactical nuclear weapons, saying the decision was a response to Western pressure and what it alleges is a military-build up by NATO member states near its borders.
Although analysts say that Vladimir Putin’s announcement is just another attempt to raise the stakes in the war in Ukraine, the deployment would definitely pose new and grave security risks to the Baltics and beyond.
BNN approached Valdas Tutkus, Major General and former Chief of Lithuanian Armed Forces, asking him to explain what the deployment of nuclear arsenal in Belarus would mean and what possible consequences it could entail.
«Amid geopolitical tensions, the issue of tactical nuclear weapons being deployed in Belarus has been raised and talked about many times. However, now, they seem imminent. Belarus has long been a nuclear-weapon-free state, but the status is about to change, meaning many new security challenges for all,» Tutkus said.
«Tactical nuclear weapons aim to destroy enemy troops and weapons on the battlefield. They have a relatively short range and a much lower yield than nuclear warheads fitted to long-range strategic missiles that are capable of obliterating whole cities,» he added.
Unlike strategic weapons, which have been subject to arms control agreements between Moscow and Washington,
tactical weapons never have been limited by any such pacts, and Russia has not released their numbers
or any other specifics related to them, he points out.
According to Major General, although the exact location of the deployment was not revealed, it will become known soon.
«This is something you cannot hide. I’m sure Lithuania will find out about the location soon, however, what makes me especially uneasy is that, to believe the Russian and Belarusian agreement, it will be Alexander Lukashenko (the president of Belarus who despite massive protests clang to power following the rigged presidential election in late 2020 – L. J.) who will be responsible for the use of such weapons. However, practically, taking into account the complexity and the peculiarities of the use, it will be the Russian officers and Putin himself who will make the final call,» V. Tutkus underscored.
Alexander Lukashenko has long urged Moscow to station its nuclear weapons in his country, which has close military ties with Russia and was a
staging ground for the invasion of neighboring Ukraine on the 24th of February, 2022.
«I also believe that, with the arrangement, in case of a strike of the kind from Belarus, NATO would be obliged to target it, not Russia. This is also something one needs to consider. Needless to say, a nuclear war would bring out catastrophic lethal consequences for all and us as humankind,» the former Lithuanian Army chief emphasized to BNN.
Despite the gravity, NATO and Lithuania are not «entirely doomed,» he says.
«NATO has big surveillance capabilities. And, God forbid, even if the weapon is launched toward us, the anti-missile defence systems we have can do the job – intercept the aircraft. And, just hypothetically, even in the hardly unimaginable scenario, the probability (of intercepting them) is rather high…No doubt, NATO will scramble to ramp up the anti-missile defence systems on our borders,» Major General accentuated.
After Russia announced it would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Lithuania’s Chief of defence Valdemaras Rupsys called Russia’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus «a challenge», adding that the Kremlin’s move didn’t come as a surprise.
Meanwhile, Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry said the move would «create another wave of tension and destabilisation in Europe».
«These actions are dragging Belarus further into the war with Ukraine and a confrontation with the democratic world,»
the ministry said.
The ministry stated that Lithuania would discuss with its partners how to respond to these militaristic plans of the Russian and Belarusian regimes and that Lithuania will call for new sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said that Russia is aiming to intimidate countries that support Ukraine by stationing nuclear weapons in Belarus.
«Russia is making new moves to provoke discontent among some Western politicians over support for Ukraine or to intimidate the countries that support Ukraine. Putin’s announcement about the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus by July also qualifies as such a move,» Anušauskas said in a Facebook post last Sunday.
He said there should be no reaction to the Russian plans.
«We should not be distracted by this, shouting «what will happen now?» The protection of NATO countries against the threat of nuclear weapons is ensured regardless of whether these weapons are deployed to the West of our borders Kaliningrad Region), to the east (Belarus), or the north (Leningrad Region),» the minister was quoted.
Anušauskas said Washington was taking only moderate steps in response, as Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus «would not change any of America’s plans for nuclear deterrence».
Kęstutis Budrys, the Lithuanian president’s senior adviser on national security issues, said that
Russia would be in breach of the international treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons
if it were to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.
«Experts and lawyers disagree on whether this would be a violation of the NPT. In my opinion, it would be a violation of the NPT on the part of Russia,» Budrys told the Žinių Radijas news radio on Tuesday, the 27th of March.
Budrys says one should not view this move as mere propaganda as both Belarus and Russia were preparing for this step both legally and politically and admitted that the move is «serious», adding that one should not «overreact».
The US government believes Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which include bombs that can be carried by aircraft, warheads for short-range missiles and artillery rounds.
Neither NATO nor the EU hastened to issue swift statements regarding Putin’s decision.