Linas Jegelevičius
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent admission that NATO countries have discussed the possibility of Western ground troops being deployed in Ukraine, saying such an eventuality could not be “ruled out” triggered a firestorm across the globe. The French president has several times already hinted of a WW III. With the horrendous abbreviation – WWIII – on the lips of many, as war in Ukraine and the Middle East rages, Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor of political sciences, and Valdas Tutkus, the former chief of Lithuanian Armed Forces, say that World War III has been happening – for a while now.
“As far as the topic of WW III is concerned, I am afraid it has started. For me, the inception of it was the Hamas attack on Israel. Then you have the Red Sea crisis, where an ongoing military standoff that began last October, when the Iran-backed Houthi movement’s militants operating Yemen launched a barrage of missiles and armed drones at Israel and the international vessels,” the analyst said.
“When it comes to Macron’s words about sending NATO troops to Ukraine, I believe all he seeks is to exasperate Russia, bring about uncertainty in the Kremlin, sow doubt there: “What if the alliance really will move from the words to actions?” I believe any uncertainty, and this, too, plays into Putin’s hands – he is very good at using it for his advantage. He has proved it many times,” V. Dumbliauskas told BNN.
He, however, doubts if Macron would be up to sending NATO troops, including French soldiers, to Ukraine.
“There is the other reason why he said that, obviously anticipating the uproar. With Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, acting cowardly with regards to Ukraine, Macron wants to burnish his trope as the leader of the entire European Union. After Angela Merkel left politics, the slot was and still is up for grabs,” the analyst says.
The analyst says that the EU leaders “understand” that wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East with the imminent ramifications constitute to the definition of World War III, however, the leaders are shunning to pronounce it loudly out of fear.
“However, now, they are starting realising that it may be a matter of time when bombs will start falling on their own cities. Unfortunately, many of the Western leaders are cowards,” V. Dumbliauskas says bluntly.
He says he is “convinced” that the idea of using nuclear power weapons “tantalizes” Putin, the Russian president.
“He believes that they would help win the war… Sadly, the three Baltic States are in the most precarious situation. Especially, Lithuania with the Suwalki gap nearby. I am not sure if, in the worst scenario, with the gap there, the Poles would come in our defence,” the analyst reasoned.
Last week, speaking in Paris where he said that European leaders had agreed to set up a coalition to give Ukraine medium- and long-range missiles and bombs, Macron said it is crucial for Europe’s security to defeat Russia in Ukraine, amid urgent pleas for more weapons from Kyiv.
He, however, acknowledged that there was “no consensus” on sending Western troops to Ukraine, but that “nothing should be excluded”.
Approached by BNN, Valdas Tutkus, the former chief of Lithuanian Armed Forces and, now, a presidential candidate, cast doubt if the French president will follow up on the NATO-troop- to-Ukraine words.
“Very doubtful. My angst stems from Lithuania’s eager “yes” to the idea, as that would be tantamount to our direct involvement in the war and, subsequently, we could potentially be facing very dire consequences – from Russia, I mean,” V. Tutkus said.
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, speaker of the Lithuanian parliament, said on Wednesday, the 28th of February, that Emmanuel Macron’s statement that the possibility of dispatching Western troops to Ukraine is not “ruled out” in the future
breaks a taboo and sends a signal to both Kyiv and Moscow,
“I believe that Macron’s statement that such an idea is being considered is such a taboo break that sends two signals. It sends a signal to Ukraine that Western allies are ready to help even more, and it also sends a signal to Russia that they will not leave Ukraine on its own,” Čmilytė-Nielsen told the Žinių Radijas radio station.
“Such discussions, if they are backed up by action, are important,” she added.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said on Tuesday, the 27th of February, that troops from NATO countries could be sent to Ukraine to train Ukrainians, not for combat operations.
But V. Tutkus warns it would be a “grave mistake.”
“France can feel cozily, as it has nuclear arsenals, meanwhile Lithuania has nothing. Let’s not forget that NATO said clearly in the NATO summit in Vilnius last summer that it will not deploy its troops in Ukraine. Just recently, Stoltenberg, the NATO chief, has reiterated that. Those countries breaching the top-level NATO decision would perhaps risk of not seeing NATO’s Article 5, stipulating cause of collective defence, activated,” V. Tutkus emphasised.
Like V. Dumbliauskas, general V. Tutkus believes that World War III is already happening.
“You don’t need to have an atomic bomb dropped somewhere to define it that way. If we were look through all the current military conflagrations, including war in Ukraine, Gaza, the Azeri-Armenian conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, it is clear to me that WWIII is happening. Thank God, with the sabre-rattling all over, so far, the major superpowers stay away from using the most lethal weaponry against one another. If that happened, the outcome would be catastrophic. If Russia started feeling what it deems an existential threat, it would certainly use its nuclear weapons, with the Baltics, and Lithuania, ending in the cusp of its fury,” V. Tutkus predicted.
Calling Macron a “constant caller to the Kremlin at the outset of war in Ukraine”, Naglis Puteikis, a former Lithuanian parliamentarian, said to BNN that the loud words by the French president if just another series of “blah-blah-blah.”
“Ukraine needs France’s and Germany’s war jets, not blah-blah-blah,” he emphasised.
To him, WW III would mean if Russia invaded the Baltic countries.
As reported, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected the idea of European countries and NATO sending troops to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Italy said that international support for Ukraine does not include the presence of ground troops and warned against giving the impression of being at war with Russia.
The Kremlin warned that WW III would become “inevitable” if Western countries sent troops to fight in Ukraine, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
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