Linas Jegelevičius for BNN
A new poll gauging Lithuanians’ affinity with potential candidates for the 2024 presidential election raised some eyebrows. Gitanas Nausėda, the incumbent president, is outstripped by Dalia Grybauskaite, the country former head–of–state.
And neither the ruling party, the Homeland Union–ithuanian Christian Democrats (TS–LKD) nor the largest opposition party, the Farmers and Greens Union see their potential candidate in the new survey by Spinter Tyrimai, the pollster.
It shows that 17.2% of the country’s voters would opt for Grybauskaitė, and 15.6% would give their votes to Nausėda.
«The results must be a bitter pill to Nausėda. One sees he is up to his eyeballs in dealing with the situation in Ukraine, the major economic challenges stemming from record-high inflation, yet he lags. It is clear that, for swaths of voters, he is not their candidate. He clearly falls out of favour with the majority of TS–LKD supporters,» Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor of Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius, told BNN.
Grybauskaitė served as the eighth President of Lithuania from 2009 until 2019.
Before that, Grybauskaitė served as Minister of Finance, as well as European Commissioner for Financial Programming and the Budget from 2004 to 2009.
In foreign press, she was often referred to as the «Iron Lady» or the «Steel Magnolia».
In the survey, incumbent Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė came in third with 8.4%, followed by Ignas Vėgėlė, ex–chairman of the Lithuanian Bar Association, who grabbed headlines during the COVID pandemic for his resistance to lengthy quarantine in the country, with 6 percent, and ex-Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis racked up 5.6%.
Notably, Šimonytė already participated in the presidential election in 2019 – Nausėda received 66 percent of all votes and Šimonytė – 33%.
«I really doubt if she wades in the same river again. Albeit the government has received a boost from the war (in Ukraine), her popularity is unimpressive, to put it mildly. And the economic problems the country is faced with will be just worsening her electoral hopes, if there are any,» the analyst said.
Further down the line in the poll was a journalist and public figure Andrius Tapinas with 3.7%, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party, with 3.4%, and Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas with 3.2%.
Tapinas garnered much attention for spearheading a campaign to buy a Bayraktar TB2 military drone for Ukraine, which was successfully completed.
There are rumours in Lithuania that the Conservatives, who are struggling to find a proper candidate for the election, might talk Tapinas into becoming their presidential hopeful.
«Not having their own candidate (in the presidential election) would be very damaging to the party. Its chairman, Gabrielius Landsbergis, who is the grandson of Vytautas Landsbergis, the patriarch of independent Lithuania, is hugely unpopular with voters. Obviously, he knows it well,» Dumbliauskas emphasised.
According to him, Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the social democrats, feels «cozy» in Brussels, where she is an euro parliamentarian, and, perhaps, does not fancy idea of squaring off with the others.
Other proposed candidates received less than three percent of votes in the survey.
As President Gitanas Nausėda rolled recently over the presidency’s three–year benchmark, many Lithuanian analysts say jokingly that his second term is «inevitable».
«I’d give him [Nausėda] a strong mark on the 10–mark scale, perhaps 8.»
The president’s popularity speaks for him. His accomplishments certainly outweigh those minor setbacks he has seen so far,» Andžej Pukšto, associate professor of Kaunas Vytautas Magnus University, has told BNN.
And the international geopolitical turbulences – and especially the war – are carrying him strongly. «When it comes to the front of foreign policy, especially dealing with the other heads-of-state as far as the war is concerned, the president was «extremely capable and leading the effort», the analyst said.
Speaking of just this week alone, Nausėda has not left the front-page headlines for most of it. On Monday, 19 September, he attended the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, the longest-serving monarch in British history. But on Tuesday, 20 September, he was already in New York, addressing the 77th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations (UNGA).
In his speech Nauseda said that Russia’s actions in Ukraine have led to the danger of a nuclear disaster in Europe. He also called on international community to distinguish between the aggressor and the victim of aggression.
«These past few months have also revealed the danger of a looming nuclear disaster in Europe. The deployment of Russian military personnel and weaponry at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is alarming and totally unacceptable… A nuclear power plant should never be used as a military base!» the Lithuanian leader stressed.
Lithuanian analysts note that the war has helped Nausėda to iron out disagreements with the ruling party, TS–LKD.
But will the president keep insisting on reshuffling the government amid the war? And looking forward, will Nausėda walk to victory in 2024 hands–down?
«From today’s perspective he is a clear front–runner. As of now, I do not see any suitable candidates able to contest him. But they may crop up later. Not sure if they can provide a stronger punch however,» Pukšto says.
Meanwhile, Dumbliauskas admits that Nausėda is «very good» on the war, but, domestically, he struggles to find «his electorate», he says. «He has been criticising the government harshly, so he cannot rely on the HU-LCD voters. He is lacking support in the parliament, Seimas,» analyst said.
Yet with no serious contenders around, the president can feel safe and comfortably. For now.